A furious comeback attempt by the Dallas Mavericks fell short in Game 3, and now they're on the brink of elimination in the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: I'm not certain that the Boston Celtics will close out the series on Friday, but I do like their chances to at least cover an alternate spread. Rounding out this parlay, I'm backing Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and P.J. Washington to make their marks on offence.
Check out the full Celtics vs. Mavericks SGP picks for Game 4 on Friday, June 14.
Celtics vs. Mavericks SGP picks
Parlay: Celtics +4.5 + Brown over 21.5 points + White over 2.5 threes + Washington over 1.5 threes (+370)
Celtics +4.5 (-205): The more two teams play each other, the more they learn about tendencies, strengths and weaknesses. And it's clear that Boston knows a lot about how to succeed against Dallas.
On offence, the Celtics attack Luka Doncic, who's dealing with a knee injury but is hardly a reputable defender even when he's at full strength. They also spread the floor out with shooters, trusting that enough 3-pointers will fall.
Defensively, the Celtics make Doncic and the Mavericks' other star, Kyrie Irving, fight for tough shots despite rarely helping with a double-team. Boston is just deeper. And better.
That's how a one-point halftime deficit on the road turned into a 21-point lead on Wednesday. Though that lead eventually dwindled, Boston never relinquished it.
A straight-up win for the Celtics wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, but I'll take some cushion to be a bit safer. The Mavericks have failed to cover a -4.5 line in seven of their past nine games.
Boston, meanwhile, is 6-0-1 ATS (and 7-0 straight up) against Dallas since the start of the 2022-23 season.
Other parlay picks
Brown over 21.5 points (-245): Brown is now a clear favourite to win Finals MVP after earning top honours in the Eastern Conference finals. His performance in Game 3 demonstrates the type of confidence he's currently playing with.
In the first half, Brown had a quiet six points on 2-of-6 shooting. But he turned up the heat in the second half going 10-for-16 en route to a 30-point finish.
Brown now has 21-plus points in seven straight games. He's not typically going to go for a game-high total, but he's a reliable contributor who can hit threes and posterize unwitting opponents.
Since May 11, Brown has gone over 21.5 points in eight of 10 games — averaging 25.8 PPG in that span.
White over 2.5 threes (-220): The most active and effective 3-point shooter for the Celtics this postseason isn't Brown. And it isn't Jayson Tatum.
It's White, who leads the team in 3-point shooting (40.7%) and in attempts per game (8.5). He's averaging 3.5 makes per game and has cashed this prop in 11-of-17 matchups.
I also like that White's volume has held steady for a while. He has eight or more 3-point attempts in eight straight games.
With the way he's shooting, that should be enough for him to get over 2.5 threes again.
Washington over 1.5 threes (-210): I had this pick in the Game 3 parlay and it came through. Washington just seems to be a more confident shooter on home court.
The trade deadline acquisition shot 3-for-6 from beyond the arc on Wednesday and has now canned multiple threes in seven straight home games.
Washington has been a 39.4 percent shooter from deep in home playoff games this year. Given how many threes the Celtics fire on a nightly basis, he should continue hoisting shots to help the Mavs keep up.
Picks as of 2:10 p.m. on 06/13/2024.