Blue Jays picks and props vs. Brewers: June 11

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Brewers June 11: Behind Kikuchi, bet on Toronto to win

Yusei Kikuchi has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of 13 starts. Photo by Nick Wass/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

June 11, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays look to even their series against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, and they're facing a pitcher making his MLB debut.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Rodriguez gets the call for the Brewers against Yusei Kikuchi and the Jays. Despite a miserable offensive performance from Toronto in the series opener, I'm taking the Jays to win on Tuesday.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Brewers for June 11.

Blue Jays picks vs. Brewers

Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-125)

With an unreliable offence, a severely underperforming bullpen and a sub-.500 record, the Blue Jays have been a difficult bunch to back on the moneyline this year.

I'd like to think I know how to pick my spots, though, and I'm willing to put that to the test tonight (I'm 2-0 on Jays moneyline picks this season).

What has me interested in Toronto is the starting pitching matchup. Kikuchi (3-5, 3.48 ERA) has been a bit up and down lately, but his good outings still outweigh the bad. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of 13 starts.

Rodriguez had turned things at the Triple-A level in the five weeks prior to his call-up, but I don't want to put too much stock into minor league success. He was the International League pitcher of the month in May, but he still has a 5.17 ERA over 12 outings with Triple-A Nashville.

If the Blue Jays can get to Rodriguez a bit, I think Kikuchi can do enough to keep the Brewers' bats in check.

Milwaukee has a 93 wRC+ against lefties this season (22nd in MLB), and a lot of their success comes by drawing walks (seventh-highest walk rate vs. LHPs).

Kikuchi isn't likely to hand out a bunch of free passes, as his 5.0% walk rate ranks in the 86th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Against Milwaukee last year, Kikuchi allowed two runs on three hits over 5.0 innings in a win.

Quick pick

Parlay: Christian Yelich 1+ hits, Jackson Chourio under 1.5 bases (+102): This combo play targets two players who are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to batting against lefties.

Yelich has a .326 batting average against southpaws this year. And among players with 50-plus plate appearances against lefties, his 175 wRC+ ranks 16th in the majors.

The two-time batting champ has a .315 BA overall this year and has collected a hit in 26 of 40 games.

As for Chourio, the 20-year-old outfielder is still adjusting against pitchers that should be providing a platoon advantage.

The righty hitter has just a .149/.245/.213 slash line against lefties so far. His 32 wRC+ ranks 183rd out of 194 batters with 50-plus plate appearances vs. LHPs.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 06/11/24.

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