As the NBA Finals shift to Dallas, where the Mavericks are in dire need of a win against the Boston Celtics.

The pregame narrative: Some folks say that a series doesn't truly begin until a team wins on the road. Boston, up 2-0 in the series, is a slight road underdog for Game 3 at American Airlines Center. Instead of backing a side, though, I'm targeting the total for my best bet.

Check out these Celtics vs. Mavericks picks for Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday, June 12.

Mavericks vs. Celtics picks

Best Bet: Over 213 points (-109)

The key term for this pick is, "positive 3-point regression."

Boston and Dallas combined for just 203 total points in Game 2, as both teams struggled mightily from 3-point land. The Mavericks shot 6-for-26 (23.1%) and the Celtics shot 10-for-39 (25.6%).

Dallas was just 7-of-27 (25.9%) from beyond the arc in the series opener, too, which contributed to a miserable 89-point night.

So, yes, the under is 2-0 in this series. But I think some positive regression on deep shots is in order — especially on the Dallas side.

And really, it's all about the role players. P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Maxi Kleber and Josh Green have shot just 3-for-19 (15.8%) from deep so far in this series.

Hopefully, a trip back home will do them some good. That quartet has shot 44-for-114 (38.6%) from 3-point range when playing in Dallas this postseason.

Getting more production from the role players will open doors to a more free-flowing and effective Dallas offence. The Mavs have averaged 106.4 points per game in the postseason, so clearly a pair of sub-100-point games like we've seen in the Finals are abnormal.

On Boston's side, the 10-for-39 performance from deep isn't terribly concerning. The team saw a lot of quality looks and has demonstrated a willingness to maintain a 3-point barrage strategy.

Key stat: Prior to their Finals matchup, the Celtics and Mavericks had gone over 213 points in all four of their meetings since the 2022-23 season. They averaged 233.3 total points in those four games.

Quick pick

Jrue Holiday over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-107): On a team headlined by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Holiday is an easy choice as the Celtics' unsung hero. He plays big minutes, and he plays them hard.

There was nothing unsung about Holiday's performance in Game 2, mind you. He scored a team-high 26 points while adding 11 rebounds and three assists.

I don't expect him to fill the net quite like that in Game 3, but the rebounds/assists production is quite replicable.

The 14th-year guard has hit this over in eight of his past nine games, averaging 12.3 RA in that span.

Boston trusts Holiday as a defender, a facilitator, a scorer and a rebounder. He'll continue to see plenty of opportunities to cash this bet.

Picks made at 2:55 p.m. on 06/10/2024.