Mavericks vs. Clippers playoff picks Game 5: Bet on Los Angeles to cover, fade Dallas' team total
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L.A. beat Dallas, 116-111, in Game 4. Photo by Tony Gutierrez/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
April 30, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers are locked into a dogfight.

The pregame narrative: The series heads back to L.A. knotted at two games apiece. Kawhi Leonard will be out again but that hasn't mattered for the Clippers. I'm expecting L.A. to cover as home underdogs on Wednesday.

Check out these Mavericks vs. Clippers picks for Game 5 of their first-round series on May 1.

Mavericks vs. Clippers picks

Best Bet: Clippers +3.5 (-117)

No Kawhi, no problem for L.A.

The Clippers are 2-0 in games where the Klaw doesn't play and 0-2 when he does suit up. Am I trying to say the team is better without Leonard? No. But I'm saying it is playing better without a hobbled player soaking up minutes.

Los Angeles covered this number in one of its losses and has the better net rating in this series (+2.0).

And if we're talking about injured players de-railing gameplans, let's look at Luka Doncic.

The MVP candidate has been battling through a sprained knee but is probable for Game 5 on Wednesday. Doncic led the league in scoring this season but is shooting a miserable 38.6% from the field and 26.5% from deep.

He's still putting up 29.0 points a night, though, so I'm not saying he's a net negative. But he's clearly not at 100% and that's hurting the team's ability to score.

Dallas is averaging just 101.25 points/game this postseason. That's nearly 16 points below its season-long average (117.3).

Back home, I expect the Clippers to win a rock fight.

Key stat: L.A. is 5-2 ATS at this number vs. Dallas this season.

Quick pick

Mavericks under 105.5 points (-113): Nothing is coming easy for the Mavericks and I expect that to continue.

Tyronn Lue's team bought into a stingy defensive system. Dallas played with the seventh-fastest pace during the regular season (100.60) but is averaging just 92.0 possessions/game in the playoffs.

And on those 92 possessions, the Mavericks have a miserable 50.8 effective field goal percentage (12th out of 16 playoff teams).

They've been held under this total in three of four games, including both in L.A. Some positive regression from Doncic would seem likely but I'm not banking on it with his current injury.

Picks as of 3:06 p.m. on 04/30/2024.

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