Clippers vs. Mavericks picks: Game 4 | NorthStar Bets

Clippers vs. Mavericks playoff picks Game 4: Fade Luka Doncic and bet the under

Since the 2022 playoffs, Luka Doncic has gone under 9.5 assists in 17 of 18 games. Photo by Tony Gutierrez/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

April 27, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks are looking to win a third game in a row against the Los Angeles Clippers to maintain a lead in their first-round playoff series.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won Game 1 but has struggled to score in Games 2 and 3. I like the under as my best bet and am fading a plus-money Luka Doncic prop.

Check out these Clippers vs. Mavericks picks for Game 4 of their first-round series on April 28.

Clippers vs. Mavericks picks

Best Bet: Under 209.5 points (-110)

The projected point total has fallen steadily in each passing game of this series, but the result has been the same. All unders.

Game 1 had a 221.5 O/U and finished at 206 total points. Games 2 and 3 had totals set at 216.5 and 213, respectively, and both went under by more than 20 points.

It might seem funny to see a strong unders trend when one of these teams employs NBA leading scorer Luka Doncic (33.9 PPG). But one man can only do so much damage.

In fact, Doncic's Mavericks are the ones who make this pick particularly compelling.

Dallas has the second-highest unders rate in the NBA (57.1%), and they're cashing unders at an even higher clip as the home team (61.9%).

Then again, Los Angeles has strong rates of cashing unders on the road (56.1%) and overall (56.6%).

Each of the past five matchups between the Clippers and Mavericks hit the under. Even though this total is lower than any of the ones that came before it, I expect the unders trend to continue on Sunday.

Key stat: The average point total over the past five Clippers/Mavericks games was 202.4 points, and four of those finished under 209.5.

Quick pick

Doncic under 9.5 assists (+102): Getting this line at plus money feels like a steal.

Doncic did land on exactly nine assists in Games 2 and 3 of this series, but that's typically as far as he gets in the postseason.

Dating back to the 2022 playoffs, Doncic has averaged 6.7 assists and hit this under in 17 of 18 games.

The Clippers allowed the seventh-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards (8.1), according to Fantasy Pros, and they've held Doncic below 9.5 assists in eight of nine games since the start of the 2022-23 season.

Picks as of 3:50 p.m. on 04/27/2024.

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