Celtics vs. Heat SGP picks Game 4: Bet on Boston to cover alt spread behind Porzingis
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Boston is up 2-1 over Miami. Photo by Michael Dwyer/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
April 28, 2024

The Boston Celtics look to take a 3-1 series lead over the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: Boston blew out Miami in Game 3 but I'm just asking it to cover -4.5 on Monday. Prop bets on Kristaps Porzingis and Jaime Jaquez Jr. round out this +320 play.

Check out the full Celtics vs. Heat SGP picks for Game 4 of their first-round matchup on April 28.

Celtics vs. Heat SGP picks

Parlay: Celtics -4.5 + Porzingis over 14.5 points + Jaquez over 12.5 points (+320)

Celtics -4.5 (-295): Miami's Game 2 victory looks stranger with each day. The team was blown out in the series opener and lost by 20 points at home on Saturday.

It was also only Boston's fifth home loss of the season.

The Celtics weren't quite as unstoppable away from TD Garden but were still the league's best road team. They went 27-14 with a +7.7 net rating.

I would lean in favour of Boston covering the standard 10-point spread for this game but I'll halve that for a little extra safety.

Joe Mazzula's team has covered this number in four of its five wins against the Heat this year and Miami is still without its top dog, Jimmy Butler.

Other parlay picks

Porzingis over 14.5 points (-134): Porzingis averaged 20.1 points per game this year and has cleared this line in five of six games versus Miami this year.

The outlier was a shocking 1-of-9 shooting performance in Game 2 but he rebounded with an 18-point effort on Saturday.

Miami was great at defending the interior this season but Porzingis has figured out how to crack that code. Boston has also shot 72.4% at the rim this postseason, which is the best mark of all playoff teams, per Cleaning the Glass.

Porzingis leads the Celtics with 6.4 paint touches per game.

Jaquez over 12.5 points (-157): Jaquez might be a rookie but he sure doesn't play like one.

The 23-year-old swingman out of UCLA fell one point shy of clearing this total in Game 3 but went over this mark in six straight games beforehand. He averaged 17.3 points in those contests.

Jaquez is getting starter's minutes (33.7 MPG in playoffs) and is averaging 14.0 field goal attempts per game this postseason. That's tied for the second-most of anyone on the Heat roster.

He should get enough run to clear this alternate total.

Picks as of 2:49 p.m. on 04/28/2024.

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