Dodgers vs. Yankees picks: Sunday Night Baseball

Dodgers vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball picks: Glasnow, Gil should produce pitchers' duel

Tyler Glasnow has gone over 17.5 outs in six of his past eight starts. Photo by Gene J. Puskar/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

June 9, 2024

The two favourites on the World Series odds leaderboard meet in prime time tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: We should have a pitchers' duel on our hands as Tyler Glasnow starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers opposite Luis Gil for the New York Yankees. I'm backing Glasnow to go deep into the game and for the game to stay under 2.5 runs in the first three innings.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Yankees picks for Sunday Night Baseball on June 9.

Dodgers vs. Yankees picks

Best Bet: Glasnow over 17.5 outs (-117)

The Dodgers are off tomorrow, but manager Dave Roberts should still be encouraged to ride with Glasnow for a significant portion of tonight's game.

Four Dodgers relievers have pitched in two of the previous three days. And Glasnow has the type of stuff that a bullpen can't replicate.

In his first season as a Dodger, Glasnow is on pace to claim his first career strikeout title. He already has 104 Ks through just 13 starts.

The +700 NL Cy Young contender has a 2.40 xERA (95th percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant) and a .192 xBA (94th percentile).

In past years, Glasnow was somewhat of a risk on his outs prop because of injury issues and the fact that his team, the Tampa Bay Rays, are among the most liberal clubs in terms of heavy bullpen usage.

Over five-plus seasons with the Rays, Glasnow averaged 16.4 outs per start. In L.A., he has averaged 18.5 outs per start.

Having spent so much time in the AL East, Glasnow has plenty of experience against the Yankees lineup. And the results have definitely swung in his favour.

In 113 plate appearances, Glasnow has held current Yankees hitters to a .194 BA and a .311 SLG. New York has just 20 hits versus 29 Ks against him.

Key stat: Glasnow has gone over 17.5 outs in six of his past eight starts, and he hit that over in both outings against the Yankees last season.

Quick picks

Under 2.5 runs - first three innings (-122): Glasnow isn't the only pitcher I expect will shove tonight.

Gil has been nearly untouchable since the start of May. Just look at his production since then:

7-0 (seven starts)
0.60 ERA
.102 opponent BA
.355 opponent OPS
10.1 K/9

Most of L.A.'s hitters have never seen Gil before, and they'll probably wish things could stay that way.

Both pitchers have been superb the first time through the opposing order. In that scenario, Glasnow has a .128 opponent BA and Gil has a .135 opponent BA.

Shohei Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-117): Anyone willing to fade Ohtani does so at their own risk, but hear me out.

Ohtani is actually in a cold spell right now and not just by his standards. Over his past 14 games, he has a .183/.234/.317 slash line and has hit this under 11 times.

Gil has been on an epic run of success, as mentioned above, so I feel OK about taking this under with Ohtani in a slump.

Also, Gil issues a lot of walks — 12.6% walk rate, 12th percentile in MLB — so that could be Ohtani's way of getting on.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET 06/09/2024.

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