The Boston Celtics landed a haymaker in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, winning with ease over the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: After Boston's 18-point win in the series opener, I'm backing the team to win by a far more modest sum in Game 2. Kristaps Porzingis was a key contributor to the victory and should be able to build upon that effort on Sunday.

Check out the full breakdown of my Mavericks vs. Celtics picks for Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday, June 9.

Mavericks vs. Celtics picks

Best Bet: Celtics -6.5 (-117)

I want to avoid being a prisoner of the moment after Boston's blowout win in Game 1. But I can't avoid giving the Celtics credit for an utterly dominant showing on defence.

The Celtics played from a comfortable and controlled position for almost the entire game. To put it one way, Boston covered a -6.5 spread from the 2:52 mark of the first quarter through the final buzzer.

Naturally, Dallas wants to run things through its all-world star, Luka Doncic.

He's usually too much for opponents to handle 1-on-1, and when he commands a double-team, the result is typically a lob around the rim, a kick-out to a corner three or some other version of a quality look.

Boston held its ground against Doncic without doubling, though, and it kept the clamps on Kyrie Irving, too. Those players combined for just three total assists — they've averaged 13.4 APG during the postseason.

As John Hollinger, a senior columnist at The Athletic, pointed out, the Mavericks had just nine assists as a team. That's matched the fewest in a Finals game since Cleveland had nine in Game 1 of the 2007 series.

Hollinger also noted that the Mavs only uncorked one corner three attempt in the first 39 minutes of the game. Keep in mind that Dallas shot more corner threes than any other team during the season, according to Cleaning the Glass.

All of this is to say that Boston kept Dallas in a stagnant, inefficient mode of offence. There's enough talent and athleticism in the Celtics' rotation to suggest that that can happen again.

On a simpler level, look at what the Celtics have done to the Mavs over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2022-23, Boston is 5-0 ATS against Dallas and has won each of those games by at least nine points.

Key stat: Boston is 44-6 at home this year with an average point differential of +14.5 points.

Quick pick

Porzingis over 21.5 points/rebounds (-112): In his first game action since April 29, Porzingis was an absolute force for the Celtics. He finished with 20 points and six rebounds in just 21 minutes.

Porzingis came off the bench for the first time this season, which presumably was a tactic to allow Boston to ease him back in. But he didn't need any hand-holding.

With two full rest days and no travel in between, I expect another strong showing for the Latvian big man in Game 2. This is a number he's been exceptionally reliable against.

In 57 regular season games, Porzingis hit this over 47 times while averaging 27.3 points/assists. Back in March, he went for 24 points and six boards against the Mavericks in 29 minutes.

Picks made at 1:55 p.m. on 06/07/2024.