I think the Boston Celtics will wrap up the NBA Finals on home court tonight, but my favourite prop bet comes from the other side of the matchup.
The pregame narrative: Dereck Lively's usage and production are trending up, which makes him an enticing play on the points/rebounds prop market. Also, look for Jrue Holiday to shine as an all-around performer.
Check out these Mavericks vs. Celtics prop bets for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday, June 17.
Mavericks vs. Celtics prop bets
Go to full Mavericks/Celtics NBA Finals betting markets.
Best Bet: Lively over 17.5 points/rebounds (-117)
Lively has been a net positive for the Dallas Mavericks throughout the postseason, averaging 8.2 points and 7.6 rebounds in 20-ish minutes per game off the bench.
At times, it's been easy to forget that Lively is just a rookie. But he reminded us when the NBA Finals began.
The 20-year-old was passive in Games 1 and 2, attempting just four shots and missing both of his free throw attempts. But look at how his involvement has ticked up in the two games since:
| Situation | Minutes/Game | Points/Game | Rebounds/Game | FGA/Game |
| Lively in Games 1 and 2 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 |
| Lively in Games 3 and 4 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 5.5 |
These are tiny sample sizes, but it's all we have for a guy playing in his very first postseason. It's just nice to see Lively appearing more comfortable as the series wears on.
At the same time, he's taking a bigger piece of the usage pie from fellow big man Daniel Gafford.
Gafford is the starter, but he's played just 26 total minutes over the past two games. He has 19 total rebounds in the series, while Lively has 25 boards in just the past two games.
Dallas has had its best results with Lively in a more prominent role, and I don't see why that would change with its season on the line once again tonight.
At 7-foot-1, Lively is big enough and athletic enough to be a factor on the glass — whether or not Kristaps Porzingis (leg) can shake his questionable tag and play.
Lively's increased minutes and shot volume should provide a sufficient floor for him to cash this prop.
Key stat: Lively has posted back-to-back double-doubles, finishing with 23 or more points/rebounds in Games 3 and 4.
Quick pick
Holiday over 24.5 points/rebounds/assists (-112): Is it too late for Holiday to win Finals MVP? Probably, but that's not a knock on his production throughout the playoffs.
Holiday, a 40-to-1 long shot to win Finals MVP, has cashed this prop in eight of his past 11 games. He's averaging 16.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.7 assists (27.5 PRA) in that span.
Like most Celtics, Holiday had his foot off the gas in Game 4. He also played about 12 minutes fewer than usual due to the nature of the 38-point blowout.
With a chance to close things out at home, I expect Holiday to be all over the court as he has been for much of the postseason. And his hit rate on this line is enough for me to buy into the over.
Picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 06/17/2024.