Best MLB prop bets May 21: Fade Brandon Pfaadt in tough road matchup vs. Dodgers
Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt is on the road against the juggernaut Dodgers. Photo by Ross D. Franklin/AP.

It's a busy Tuesday night in MLB with 15 games on tap starting with the New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: I have a recommendation for that game on Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo and have two other prop picks on pitchers Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 21.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Quantrill over 16.5 outs (-127)

The Colorado Rockies right-hander has allowed two runs over three starts this month, good for a 0.92 ERA to lower his season-long mark to 3.66.

That number is especially impressive considering Quantrill has made four starts at his unforgiving home park, Coors Field.

He has cleared this number against three top-10 offences, by wRC+, in the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres.

Tonight, he'll attempt to do it against a much easier opponent in a pitcher-friendly environment. Quantrill gets a reeling Athletics team at Oakland Coliseum.

The A's have dropped eight in a row and 13 of their last 15 games. They haven't scored more than four runs during the losing streak.

While the A's have been competent against right-handers, they are 20th in wRC+ on the season with MLB's second-highest strikeout rate.

Key stat: Quantrill has cleared this line in six of his last seven starts.

Quick picks

Nimmo over 0.5 runs (+100): Nimmo is having a down year, like several of his teammates, but he has hit the ball much better this month and has a nice matchup tonight.

The New York Mets leadoff hitter is slugging .527 in May — a significant jump from the .387 mark he posted in April — and has four homers.

He'll see struggling right-hander Carlos Carrasco to start the game. Carrasco (5.16 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) will face a Mets squad that has a 103 wRC+ versus righties.

The veteran allows plenty of baserunners and has surrendered eight homers over his last five starts.

Nimmo has scored 26 runs in 44 games and leads all Mets regulars with a .360 on-base percentage. His .383 OBP versus right-handers is nearly 100 points higher than his mark against lefties.

Pfaadt under 17.5 outs (-109): This is entirely about the opponent.

Pfaadt is having a strong year following his arrival in last year's postseason as a rookie.

He's giving the Diamondbacks quality innings, completing six-plus frames in six of his nine starts, including each of the last four.

But tonight he faces the cream of the crop: the Los Angeles Dodgers, in a road start to boot.

The Dodgers are second to the New York Yankees in slugging and wRC+ versus righties. And, along with New York, L.A. is one of only three teams walking at a 10% clip.

Excluding openers, right-handed starters are 7-25 against this line vs. the Dodgers this season.

Los Angeles is a nightmare and two of its best hitters — Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — do significantly more damage off right-handers.

There's only a small percentage of righties I would take the over on this line against the Dodgers, and Pfaadt is not one of them.

Picks made at 2:24 p.m. ET on 05/21/2024.

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