Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP picks Game 1: Bet on Luka Doncic, KAT in +290 ticket
Luka Doncic has gone over 30 points in both matchups against Minnesota this year. Photo by Jeffrey McWhorter/AP.

The Western Conference finals begin Wednesday as the Minnesota Timberwolves battle the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Dallas took down the West's top seed last round, while Minnesota knocked off the defending champs. For their series opener, I'm eyeing an alt total to go with prop bets on Luka Doncic and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Check out the full Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP picks for Game 1 on Wednesday, May 22.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP picks

Parlay: Under 214.5 points + Doncic over 27.5 points + Town over 7.5 rebounds (+290)

Under 214.5 points (-250): Minnesota has its swagger back, and that is most evident by how it stymied the Denver Nuggets in Games 6 and 7 of the conference semis.

Denver scored just 160 total points in those games while shooting 35.5% from the field (and 21.7% from deep).

Minnesota, which had the best defensive rating in the NBA this season (108.4), is reverting to its true identity. And that's a good sign for unders bettors.

Additionally, Dallas has been a profitable team for unders bettors all year. According to Team Rankings, the under is 52-41-1 in Mavericks' games — the fourth-highest rate in the NBA.

The under is 4-0 in matchups between the Timberwolves and Mavericks this season, and I like for that to continue on Wednesday.

Other parlay picks

Doncic over 27.5 points (-150): Although I'm backing an alt under, I still expect Doncic to do plenty of damage as a scorer.

The MVP finalist came alive when it mattered most against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He scored 31 and 29 points, respectively, in the final two games of that series while shooting 9-of-17 (52.9%) from 3-point range.

As stated, Minnesota has arguably been the best defensive squad in the league this season. But Doncic has found a way against the T-Wolves before and should be able to do so again.

He cleared the 30-point threshold in both matchups against Minnesota during the regular season. As Doncic continues to battle a knee injury, the three days off between games should help.

Towns over 7.5 rebounds (-210): After missing more than a month in the final stretch of the regular season, Towns only had a chance to play in two games before the playoffs began. That made him quite a risky player to back on the prop market.

But Towns has settled in nicely during the postseason, averaging 9.3 rebounds over 11 games. He's gone over the 7.5-rebound mark in seven of those matchups.

One issue with Towns is that he picks up a lot of fouls, which could harm his workload. But he hasn't fouled out yet in the playoffs, and the T-Wolves have consistently kept him on the floor for over 30 minutes per night.

KAT went over 7.5 rebounds in three of four matchups against the Mavericks this season, averaging 10.3 boards in those games.

Picks as of 2:50 p.m. on 05/21/2024.

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