The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox meet for a rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: Marcus Stroman and Kutter Crawford take the mound for the Yankees and Red Sox. The former has dominated Boston's current lineup while the latter is struggling. That's why I'm backing New York on the F5 moneyline.

Check out my Yankees vs. Red Sox best bet for Sunday Night Baseball on June 16.

Yankees vs. Red Sox best bet

Best Bet: Yankees F5 moneyline (-134)

Crawford had a dream start to the season but he's been getting shelled lately.

Boston's righty posted a 1.35 ERA through April (six starts) and has a 4.98 ERA since (eight starts). He's given up 17 earned runs and 22 hits in his last four starts and the Red Sox are 0-3-1 on the F5 moneyline in those outings.

Crawford does have a solid history against the Yankees, which is worth noting.

He's held this lineup to a .130 batting average with a 27.5% K rate in 51 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant. But that was before Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo joined the team.

Soto's 18 home runs rank fifth in MLB while his 1.035 OPS ranks second. He was frontrunning the AL MVP race at one point but now his teammate, Aaron Judge, has taken pole position.

Judge is hitting .300 and leads MLB in home runs (25), RBI (63) and OPS (1.108).

All of that is to say Crawford will have his work cut out for him against a New York team which ranks second in runs per game (5.08).

Keeping up with the Yankees' offence is tough and the Red Sox should have a hard time beating Storman, who is dealing this year.

Stroman has a 2.82 ERA and has given up one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. He's also held this Red Sox lineup to a .143 batting average in 47 plate appearances.

The Yankees have cashed the F5 moneyline in each of his last six starts.

Key stat: The Yankees are a league-best 43-18-12 on the F5 moneyline.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 06/16/2024.