The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars will sort out the last remaining first-round matchup on Sunday night.
The pregame narrative: Both teams have overcome adversity in this series. Now, the Golden Knights and Stars battle in a definitive Game 7. I'm expecting another low-scoring game with both teams locking it down. Dallas is my pick to win a nail-biter.
Check out these Golden Knights vs. Stars picks for Game 7 on May 5.
Golden Knights vs. Stars picks
Best Bet: Under 5.5 goals (-118)
A barn burner seems highly unlikely at this point.
It took nearly 50 minutes for either team to strike in Game 6. Noah Hanifin beat Jake Oettinger midway through the period to make it 1-0 before Mark Stone added an empty-netter with time expiring.
But Oettinger has been stellar since Game 1. The netminder hasn't allowed more than two goals in any game and boasts an outstanding .940 save percentage.
Expecting anything less than another dominant effort from Oettinger seems foolish.
There's also a rejuvenated Adin Hill on the other side. Vegas' Stanley Cup goaltender was in championship form for Game 6. He turned aside all 23 shots in the victory.
He has stopped 45-of-48 shots in this series and will likely keep the Golden Knights in it.
It's unlikely Vegas' offence pops off in this contest, either. The Golden Knights are tied for the third-worst expected goals per 60 (2.6) in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Key stat: The under on this total has hit in four of six games during this series.
Quick picks
Stars moneyline (-152): This is a decent amount of juice to pay, but I'll do it.
This series has been tightly contested. Dallas is +106 to win in regulation but overtime seems like a real possibility considering three games in this series have been decided by one goal.
The Stars are my choice because they've truly been the better team in this series. That doesn't guarantee a win, but it does contribute to the reasoning for this pick.
Here's how the teams have performed in some key metrics through six games:
| Team | xGF% | SCF% | HDCF% |
| Stars | 58.05 | 57.98 | 62.42 |
| Golden Knights | 41.95 | 42.02 | 37.58 |
Dallas has outplayed Vegas for most of this series will likely do so again on Sunday.
Being at home is also a major edge for the Stars. Despite both teams losing multiple games at home in this series, Dallas went 26-10-5 at American Airlines Center during the regular season while Vegas went 18-17-6 as a visitor.
Picks made at 2:36 p.m. on 05/04/24.