The final matchup of the first round takes place in Northeast Ohio on Sunday, where the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers play a win-or-go-home Game 7.

The pregame narrative: This series has been a rock fight, where scoring is at a premium and home-court advantage matters. I'm betting on the Cavaliers to close it out at home and attaching prop bets for Donovan Mitchell and Wendell Carter Jr.

Check out the full Clippers vs. Mavericks SGP picks for Game 7 of their first-round matchup on May 3.

Magic vs. Cavaliers SGP picks

Parlay: Cavaliers ML + Mitchell under 4.5 threes + George under 28.5 points (+260)

Cavaliers moneyline (-167): The home team has won every game of this series so far, and I think that trend will carry on to the finish line.

Looking at both teams' home/road splits this year, the trend makes sense. Cleveland is 29-15 at home versus 22-22 on the road. Orlando is 32-12 at home and 18-26 on the road.

When the Magic are supposed to lose on the road, they tend to do so. They are 9-22 as road underdogs this year with a -6.5 average point differential, per Team Rankings.

In Game 5, Paolo Banchero's 39-point effort was almost enough for the Magic to upset the Cavs at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. But Cleveland's first two wins on home court were decided by double digits.

Whether or not the ride is smooth, Cleveland should be able to take the road to victory.

Other parlay picks

Mitchell under 3.5 threes (-278): I had Mitchell under 2.5 threes in my Game 6 parlay, and it was looking great for most of the way.

Mitchell started 1-for-6 from deep but spoiled my pick by hitting two of his final three 3-pointers ... including one from the logo in the final 30 seconds.

Still, his 3-for-9 effort was underwhelming, and I'm content to fade him again with a little more cushion.

During the regular season, the Magic allowed the fourth-fewest threes per game (11.5) and the 10th-lowest 3-point percentage (35.8%).

Mitchell has gone under this number in all six games this series, as well as 16 of 17 games over the past three postseasons.

Carter over 6.5 rebounds (-182): Carter spent most of the season in Orlando's starting lineup, and he returned to that role in Game 3 of this series.

In the regular season and playoffs combined, Carter has gone over 6.5 rebounds in 29 of 52 games as a starter (55.8%).

He saw reduced minutes in Games 3 and 4 since both matchups were well in hand for the Magic, but Carter has been back above the 30-minute mark in the past two games. He combined for 20 boards in Games 5 and 6, easily cashing this over both times.

Cleveland's leading rebounder, Jarrett Allen, has missed back-to-back games. Another absence would make Carter look even more secure at this number.

Picks as of 3:25 p.m. on 05/04/2024.