Every MLB team is in action tonight, leaving plenty of opportunities for a three-leg parlay.
The pregame narrative: The Chicago Cubs are playable on an alt run line — especially with a stellar starter on the mound. I also expect Cristian Javier and the Houston Astros to find success at home, while Salvador Perez is worth backing on his RBI prop.
Check out my MLB parlay picks for May 21.
MLB parlay picks
Parlay: Cubs +2.5 + Perez over 0.5 RBI + Astros moneyline (+356)
Cubs +2.5 (-230): Spotting multiple runs to Javier Assad feels like a cheat code, and I'll gladly oblige.
The 26-year-old has a 1.49 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through nine starts. Chicago is 6-3 straight up in those games and has covered this line in each of them.
That includes Assad's most recent start, a 7-1 win over the same Atlanta Braves he'll see tonight. In that game, the right-hander struck out seven Braves over six scoreless innings.
Atlanta is among the best teams in baseball, but this is still a lofty line. In its past 20 games, Atlanta has only covered a -2.5 run line five times.
Other parlay picks
Perez over 0.5 RBI (+115): Perez is fourth in the majors in RBI (38), and it's pretty easy to see why. When he's at the dish with runners in scoring position, Perez has been as clutch as they come.
In 56 plate appearances with RISP, the veteran catcher is batting a league-best .467. He also has a staggering 269 wRC+ in that situation.
Perez is crushing overall right now, too, cashing this RBI prop in seven of his past 12 games. From the cleanup spot in the Kansas City Royals' lineup, he typically has the best chance to produce.
That should be true again tonight as he faces Detroit Tigers starter Casey Mize, who has struggled to stop Perez in the past.
Perez is 9-for-21 (.429) against Mize with two doubles and a home run.
Astros moneyline (-210): Houston lost its series opener against the Los Angeles Angels last night, but I think the home team is in a good spot to rebound with Javier on the hill.
Javier has a remarkable 40.4% K rate against the Angels' current lineup, per Baseball Savant, as well as a .212 opponent batting average in 52 at-bats.
Last year, Houston won all three of his starts against L.A.
Also, Javier has been a menace at home this season. Through four outings, he has allowed just two runs (0.75 ERA) while striking out 22 batters over 24 innings.
Angels starter Griffin Canning (2-4, 5.21 ERA) should be no match for Javier. Against the Astros' current lineup, Canning has allowed a .333 BA and .583 SLG in 48 at-bats.
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 05/21/24.