Best MLB prop bets April 29: Back Max Fried and Will Smith on Monday night
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Max Fried is coming off a three-hit shutout. Photo by John Bazemore/AP.
Chris Toman
@Chris_Toman
April 29, 2024

Three prop pick recommendations are getting served up for Monday's 12-game MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Today's best bet is a play on Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried. I'm also backing Grayson Rodriguez and Will Smith.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 29.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Fried over 17.5 outs (-120)

Fried is coming off his best outing of the season: a three-hit shutout with six strikeouts and no walks versus the Miami Marlins.

He has appeared to put a horrific start to the season behind him. The southpaw has a 1.77 ERA over his last three starts after going a combined five innings over his first two and allowing 11 runs.

He gets the Seattle Mariners tonight and this looks like an excellent matchup.

Seattle has been a big target on strikeout props due to its league-high K rate but I think backing Fried on his outs line is the better play.

The Mariners have a below-average 90 wRC+ versus lefties, getting on base at a measly .292 clip. They're averaging 3.7 runs per game, 25th in MLB.

Seattle's home stadium has been the most pitcher-friendly park in MLB this season and was last year, too, according to Baseball Savant.

This soft landing spot at T-Mobile Park would be an ideal game for Atlanta to get some length from Fried.

Braves relievers logged 8.2 innings over the weekend thanks to back-to-back extra-inning games.

Key stat: Fried has topped this line in two of his last three starts and six of his final nine last season after returning from injury.

Quick picks

Rodriguez over 5.5 Ks (-120): This line feels low even against a New York Yankees team that doesn't strike out much and walks a lot.

The 24-year-old Baltimore Orioles righty has made five starts and cleared this number in all but one. Rodriguez had five punchouts the one time he fell short.

Last season, his first in the bigs, was a mixed bag that saw him get demoted early. But the strikeouts were always there — Rodriguez fanned six-plus batters in 14 of his 23 starts. And he put up monster K numbers at every minor-league level.

Rodriguez has a 28.1 K% this year after a mark of 25% in his rookie year. The average for starting pitchers has been just over 22% this year and last.

I'm interested whenever I can get a pitcher with above-average K rates at this line and price.

Smith over 0.5 RBI (+104): I want a piece of the Los Angeles Dodgers' offence tonight against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Tommy Henry.

Here's why:

  • Henry has a 5.55 ERA (4.72 career)
  • Opponents are hitting .294 off him
  • He has a career-high hard-hit rate
  • Dodgers lead MLB in OBP & are 4th in runs/game

So why Smith? He's been obliterating left-handers and this price point is much more attractive than some of the other Dodgers player prop options.

Smith vs. LHPs: .483/.543/.655. He's first in batting average and third in OPS (1.198).

He's predominantly been the Dodgers' cleanup hitter, meaning he's behind Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.

Betts' implied odds of scoring tonight are an outrageous 67.7% at -210. Ohtani is 62.5%. Betts leads MLB in OBP, Freeman ranks fifth and Ohtani is 15th.

Smith, who has 21 RBI in 25 games, should have a great opportunity to drive in that star-studded group.

Picks made at 12:45 p.m. ET on 04/29/2024.

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