NHL playoff best bets April 29: Bet on Stars to even up series, Lightning to deliver in Game 5
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Bet on the Dallas Stars to beat the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 4. Photo by Tony Gutierrez/AP.
Steven Psihogios
@StevenPsihogios
April 29, 2024

There are a pair of wagers I like from Monday's two-game NHL playoff slate.

The pregame narrative: The Tampa Bay Lightning received a major jolt of energy in Game 4 and I expect that to carry over into Game 5 against the Florida Panthers. The Dallas Stars are back in their series and I'm betting on another win against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Check out my NHL best bets for April 29.

NHL best bets

Best Bet: Lighting to win or tie in regulation (-110)

Tampa Bay's not going down without a fight.

The Lightning were down 0-3 in in their series against the Panthers before they received a major emotional boost in Game 4.

Mikhail Sergachev, less than three months removed from fracturing his fibula and tibia, returned to the lineup. He supplied an assist on the game-winning goal in a 6-3 win where the Bolts jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first period.

The injury news is positive for Tampa Bay while it's problematic for Florida. Sam Bennett remains out and he's a crucial piece for the Cats.

The shackles may be coming off the Lightning's offence, also, which seems to have broken through in these last couple of games. They've put nine past Bobrovsky in Games 3 and 4 after only scoring four in the first two contests.

Nikita Kucherov, specifically, seems to be finding more room to operate. He recorded his first multi-point game of the series (three assists) after being held to one point in each of the first three contests.

Tampa Bay lost a pair of one-goal games to open the series. It's been closer than the 3-1 margin indicates and I expect the Bolts to put off elimination for at least one more night.

Key stat: Andrei Vasilevskiy has a higher goals saved above expected (0.8) than Bobrovsky (-0.8), according to Money Puck.

Quick pick

Stars moneyline (-127): Dallas struck back in Game 3.

The Stars won 3-2 in overtime after a couple of close losses to the Golden Knights.

The most inviolable development in Game 3 was the emergence of Dallas' top goal-scorer from the regular season, Wyatt Johnston. The forward potted a pair, including the game-winner, to get his team back in the series.

The numbers suggest the Stars are dominating play. They lead in expected goals (11.28-6.94) and high-danger chances (53-26), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Jake Oettinger has improved as the series has progressed. He owns a .932 save percentage in Games 2 and 3 after allowing four goals on 15 shots in Game 1.

This series should be even at the very least through four. I like the Stars to tie it up before heading to American Airlines Center for Game 5.

Picks made at 1:53 p.m. on 04/29/24.

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