San Diego Padres starter Michael King headlines Wednesday's MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: I'm betting on King to clear his K prop, with additional recommendations on Teoscar Hernandez and Brayan Bello.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 22.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: King over 5.5 Ks (-129)
King is coming off a seven-strikeout performance. The game before that, he fanned a season-high 11 batters.
While that's encouraging, he only had three in his game before the double-digit outing and allowed six-plus runs in three of four starts to end April.
King dazzled with a 30-plus K% over the final month of last season and was a headliner in the New York Yankees-Padres trade package for Juan Soto.
While he's been a bit of a letdown in 2024, he does enter tonight with a 25.7 K%, which is well above average.
And he gets a juicy matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who have the second-highest K rate in MLB versus right-handers.
King's walks and home run issues are a concern going into a start at Great American Ball Park, but he's completed at least five innings in seven of his last eight starts.
Getting there again should help him reach this number.
Key stat: King has notched six-plus strikeouts in four of his last six outings.
Quick picks
Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+135): The potent Los Angeles Dodgers get Ryne Nelson of the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.
Nelson had a rough April and has been even worse in May over his three starts.
- 9.88 ERA
- 15 runs
- 29 hits
He's managed that over just 13.2 innings.
The Dodgers demolish righties, making their hitters obvious targets on the player prop markets.
Before getting to Hernandez, Nelson will have to get past Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. They all rank among the top-six leaders in MLB in on-base percentage versus righties.
Hernandez has taken advantage of that, driving in a team-high 37 runs. And he's plenty capable of cashing this with one swing. His 11 homers are two behind Ohtani's 13.
Opportunities should be there for the Dodgers slugger against Nelson, who's getting punished by right-handed hitters (.439/.457/.636).
Bello under 16.5 outs (-120): Bello has the matchup (Tampa Bay Rays) and venue (Tropicana Field) working in his favour, but it's not enough to convince me that he can work this deep.
The Rays have scored four runs over a three-game losing streak. They have a below-average offence and above-average K rate versus right-handers, and are at risk of getting swept today.
But Bello has only topped this line once in seven starts. On top of that, the Boston Red Sox's bullpen should be in good shape ahead of an off day tomorrow.
The club got a season-high 5.1 innings out of Cooper Criswell last night, seven from Tanner Houck the game before that and six from Nick Pivetta on Sunday.
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 05/22/2024.