Oilers vs. Stars picks for Game 1

Oilers vs. Stars playoff picks Game 1: Bet on Dallas to win, Draisaitl to perform in WCF opener

Bet on the Stars to win and Draisaitl to record a power-play point in Game 1. Photos from AP.

Avery Perri

May 22, 2024

The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars begin the Western Conference final on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Edmonton is Canada's last hope of bringing the Stanley Cup north of the border. The Oilers dispatched the Vancouver Canucks in seven but Dallas represents a step up in competition. I'm backing the Stars to win Game 1 at home but expecting Leon Draisaitl to stay hot.

Check out these Oilers vs. Stars picks for Game 1 on May 23.

Oilers vs. Stars picks

Best Bet: Stars to win (-130)

Edmonton has the best two players on the ice but Dallas is the better hockey team.

The Stars have eliminated each of the last two Stanley Cup champions en route to the Western Conference final. They are 8-3 since losing their first two postseason games to the Vegas Golden Knights.

Dallas has allowed just 2.18 goals per game during that run.

The Stars have dominated play this postseason and I expect that to continue. At 5-on-5, they have the second-best goals share (55.00%), expected goals share (54.51%), and high-danger chances rate (56.41%), per Natural Stat Trick.

The Oilers rank sixth, ninth and sixth in those categories.

But the big difference in this series is goaltending. Jake Oettinger has been lights out since his first two playoff starts with a .927 save percentage and 1.93 GAA in his last 11 games.

Edmonton flip-flopped between Jeff Skinner and Calvin Pickard in the last round. The former will likely start Game 1 and it's hard to trust him against a high-octane team like the Stars.

Skinner has an .881 SV% this postseason.

Key stat: Dallas went 2-1 agianst Edmonton this year with a +5 goal differential.

Quick pick

Draisaitl 1+ power play points (+100): Only one person has a higher playoff point-per-game rate than Draisaitl (1.656) — and his name is Wayne Gretzky.

The German winger is truly an all-time postseason performer, even if he hasn't lifted the Cup yet.

Draisaitl is pacing the playoffs in points (24) and has found the stat sheet in all 12 games so far. He's -435 to record a point, which I want no part of. But even-money odds to get involved on the power play? Yes please.

Edmonton has the best power play percentage (37.5%) this postseason and Draisaitl has been a key cog on that unit. He has six goals and six assists and has cashed this bet in six of 12 games.

Picks made at 10:17 a.m. on 05/22/24.

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