Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga headlines Friday's MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: The 30-year-old rookie is sizzling and should stay hot against a division rival. I'm also backing two bats to do damage: Max Kepler and Kyle Tucker.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 24.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Imanaga over 5.5 Ks (-106)
Imanaga enters tonight's start with an MLB-best 0.84 ERA. He hasn't allowed a run in three of his four starts this month.
The left-hander has been downright dominant, helping the Cubs turn out an 8-1 record when he's on the mound.
Beyond the run-suppression, he's also giving the club innings. Imanaga has gone more than six frames in four of his last five starts.
A bigger workload increases the chances of more strikeouts and Imanaga has delivered on that, too.
The Japanese native has topped this number in five straight starts. In fact, he's recorded seven-plus strikeouts in all of them.
He'll see the St. Louis Cardinals for the first time in his career. While the Cardinals have a below-average K rate versus lefties (fifth-lowest in MLB), they have not hit them well.
St. Louis' .205 batting average against southpaws is 29th in baseball and its 77 wRC+ is the fourth-worst mark.
Imanaga is holding opponents to a .200 average and only three starters have a lower WHIP (0.91) than him.
Expect more good results from Imanaga tonight.
Key stat: Imanaga is 6-3 vs. a 5.5 K line.
Quick picks
Kepler over 1.5 total bases (+106): The Minnesota Twins outfielder typically sits versus lefties and mashes righties. Tonight, he sees right-hander Jose Urena.
Urena is throwing well for the Texas Rangers but his success has some smoke-and-mirror elements to it.
The 32-year-old doesn't miss bats, meaning balls are routinely put in play against him. But he's gotten by with a .237 batting average on balls in play, which is significantly lower than his career mark (.287).
That has helped him put together a career-best 3.29 ERA over 13 appearances and three starts.
His ERA over the last five seasons:
- 2023: 6.45
- 2022: 5.01
- 2021: 5.81
- 2020: 5.40
- 2019: 5.21
Outside of a strong groundball rate and good velocity, two things he's always possessed, there's not much he's doing extremely well — though Urena has lowered his walk rate.
I'm choosing to focus more on Urena's larger body of work and that screams plus matchup for Kepler. Lefties have a career .287/.356/.475 (.831 OPS) line against Urena.
Kepler is batting .289 versus righties and slugging .518 with an .880 OPS. In May, he's hitting a robust .356 with a 1.093 OPS.
The 31-year-old has started 15 games this month, topping this line 11 times.
Tucker over 0.5 RBI (+135): The Houston Astros slugger faces Oakland A's righty Ross Stripling and he did damage against him earlier this month.
Tucker singled, doubled and drove in a run and was a plus-money recommendation by me on his total bases prop that game. At -118 to clear 1.5 bases tonight, I'm looking for another way to back him.
Only Patrick Corbin has allowed more hits than Stripling's 69 this season. The righty has a 5.19 ERA and has recorded three strikeouts or fewer in five consecutive starts.
Houston hits righties hard (115 wRC+, fifth in MLB) and Tucker demolishes them, slugging .679 with an 1.117 OPS.
He leads the majors with 17 homers and has a team-leading 36 RBI.
Picks made at 12:51 p.m. ET on 05/24/2024.