NBA playoff prop bets May 3: Back James Harden, fade Franz Wagner
Top Stories
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins props Game 7Best MLB prop bets May 4Magic vs. Cavaliers SGP picks Game 7Golden Knights vs. Stars picks and odds Game 7Premier League best bets for Matchday 36Win up to $500,000 with 4-4-2 Picks!Oilers vs. Canucks odds Game 1NBA Finals MVP oddsConor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler UFC 303 oddsOdds to win the Stanley CupOdds to win the Champions LeagueOdds to win the NBA FinalsOdds to win the PGA ChampionshipConn Smythe Trophy oddsThe Week In Sports Quiz (April 29)Odds to win the Premier LeagueGrey Cup odds for 2024 CFL seasonNorthStar Bets announces 'Sports Insights 2.0'How to make a same-game parlay betHow to bet on player and game propsHow to bet on the NBAHow to bet on the NHLTake The Ultimate UFC Quiz!How to make a parlay betGlossary of key sports betting terms
Back James Harden and fade Franz Wagner. Photos by AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
May 4, 2024

I've got one NBA prop bet from both of Friday's Game 6s.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Clippers are facing elimination and I expect James Harden to step up and score. Franz Wagner has been solid for the Orlando Magic but his point total is asking too much against a good Cleveland Cavaliers defence.

Check out these NBA prop bets for May 3.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Wagner under 19.5 points (-122)

I faded Wagner at this number on Tuesday and it worked quite well.

The German forward scored 14 points on 3-of-11 shooting. That marked the fourth time in five games that he fell under this number.

Wagner did erupt for 33 points at home in Game 4 but it's pretty clear that performance was an outlier.

The Cavaliers' defence has given Wagner fits all season long. He's scored fewer than 20 points in eight of nine games against the Cavs and shot just 39.3% from the field against them in the regular season.

He's been better this series but it's still not enough to suggest a breakthrough is coming.

Cleveland held opponents to 42.1% shooting in the short-midrange (seventh-best in the NBA) and 62.8% shooting at the rim (third-best) during the regular season, per Cleaning the Glass.

And that is where Wagner loves to play. He took 24% of his shots from the short midrange (84th percentile in the NBA) and 45% of his shots at the rim (93rd percentile) this season.

Simply put, this is an awful matchup.

Key stat: Wagner has gone under this mark in four of his last five home games versus Orlando since 2022-23.

Quick picks

Harden over 19.5 points (-139): Harden is coming off a brutal seven-point, 2-of-12 shooting performance but he should step up tonight.

The Beard averaged 26.0 points through the previous four games, clearing this total in each contest.

He's not the scorer he used to be but will likely be taking the majority of shots tonight with Kawhi Leonard injured and Paul George slumping.

The former averaged 23.7 PPG this season and the latter is shooting 42.9% this series. Taking the under on George's 24.5-point total is also enticing.

The Dallas Mavericks' defence has found another gear in the playoffs but is still struggling to defend 3-point land. The Clippers are shooting 39.6% from deep (best of any playoff team) and Harden is cashing in at 43.9% from beyond the arc.

Look for him to do most of his damage from long range.

Picks made at 10:46 a.m. on 05/03/2024.

All odds shown in this article are from Northstarbets.ca: The odds presented in this article are sourced from Northstarbets.ca, the producer of this content. Please note that odds may vary and are subject to change. Odds units and offers are advertisements and promotions from Northstarbets.ca: Any odds units and offers mentioned within this content are advertisements and promotions provided by Northstarbets.ca. These promotions are subject to terms and conditions, and readers are encouraged to review them before participating. This blog and article is owned and controlled by Northstarbets.ca: This blog and article are owned and controlled by Northstarbets.ca and are intended for commercial purposes. The content is created to provide statistics & analysis for global sporting events, highlight odds and offers available on Northstarbets.ca and may contain promotional material.