A pair of Game 6s are the centre of Friday's NHL Best Bets.

The pregame narrative: The Dallas Stars have rallied back from an 0-2 deficit and I'm expecting a fourth consecutive win to close out their series against the Vegas Golden Knights. The under is an attractive wager in that contest as well as between the Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators.

Check out my NHL best bets for May 3.

NHL best bets

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-107)

I don't expect Vegas to forfend elimination at The Fortress in Game 6.

The Golden Knights are getting thoroughly outplayed by the Stars in this series. Dallas has the best expected goals percentage (61.76%) of the postseason, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The Stars also boast the highest high-danger chance percentage (65.60%) in the playoffs.

Vegas' lone edge was goaltending but even now that advantage lies with Dallas.

Logan Thompson has been excellent for the Golden Knights. He has a .921 save percentage in the playoffs and is third in goals saved above expected per 60 (1.22), according to Money Puck.

But they decided to bench him in favour of Adin Hill in Game 5 and that didn't work so well. Hill allowed three goals on 25 shots in a 4-2 loss.

Goaltending has gone from being Vegas' greatest strength to a bit of a conundrum. Give me a surging Dallas to end this series on the road.

Key stat: Jake Oettinger owns a .933 save percentage since Game 2.

Quick picks

Stars vs. Golden Knights under 6 goals (-121): You know it's been an offensive struggle when a three-goal performance is considered a "poor goaltending effort."

But that's exactly how this series has played out. The under on this total has hit in three of the last four games while pushing in the lone exception.

Vegas' offence doesn't appear capable of hanging a gaudy goal total in any contest. The team is generating the second-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.37) while Oettinger hasn't allowed more than two goals in any outing since Game 1.

The Golden Knights have largely received quality goaltending, too, owning the fifth-best save percentage of any team (.909) in the playoffs.

Canucks vs. Predators under 5.5 goals (-115): This has mostly been a series devoid of offence.

The under has hit in three of five games as both squads struggle to find room to operate.

Vancouver ranks last in the playoffs in expected goals per 60 (2.27) while Nashville is 14th (2.44).

Just mustering shots on goal has been a challenge for these two. The Canucks are firing off a playoff-low 18.4 shots per game while the Predators are 15th with 24.4 per contest.

Goaltending hasn't been great for either side but when the shot totals are this low, it really doesn't matter.

Picks made at 2:35 p.m. on 05/02/24.