It feels like we've been here before, right?

The pregame narrative: The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins are going to Game 7, again. Toronto erased a 3-1 series deficit without Auston Matthews and now has a chance to finish the job. I say the Maple Leafs do it.

Check out these Maple Leafs vs. Bruins picks for Game 7 on May 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins picks

Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (+116)

It's time for Toronto to vanquish its demons.

The Maple Leafs have been the better team this series despite being down two of their top players for a combined five games. At this point, it would be a shock to see Matthews back in the lineup on Saturday but I'm not sure that matters much.

Boston's offence has become anemic since Joseph Woll took Toronto's net.

The rookie goaltender had a strong showing in the playoffs last year and has turned away 54-of-56 shots in two-plus games of work.

It helps that the team in front of him is playing lights-out defence.

The Maple Leafs held the Bruins to just two shots in the first period and ultimately 23 in the whole game. Sheldon Keefe's squad weathered a late storm from Boston and blocked 24 shots en route to what was basically a shutout victory (Boston scored with one second left in the third).

Cracking Jeremy Swayman will be tough — the netminder has a stellar .947 SV% this postseason — but I'm confident Toronto can win a war of attrition.

The Leafs have generated at least 54.6% of 5v5 chances in all three games at TD Garden, per Natural Stat Trick.

Let's not discount Boston's disposition, either. The Bruins blew a 3-1 series lead last year and now the pressure firmly lies with them.

Key stat: Boston is 0-6 in its last six series-clinching games with a .882 save percentage.

Quick pick

Bruins under 2.5 goals — regular time (+104): For the first time in a long time the Maple Leafs have a goalie they can trust in Game 7.

The Brick Woll has started four playoff games for the Leafs and has yet to allow three goals in regulation. In fact, he's given up just five total regulation goals in those starts.

Toronto clogged up every shooting lane on Thursday and things will only get more desperate on Saturday night.

That type of defensive dedication combined with Boston's lack of offensive playmakers should keep this a low-scoring game.

David Pastrnak was the only Bruin to score more than 67 points this year and he's struggling the last few games. The winger has three even-strength points this series.

If Toronto can stay out of the box like its done the last two games, I'm very bullish on this bet cashing.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. on 05/03/24.