Oilers vs. Panthers Stanley Cup Final Game 1 props: Fade McDavid in series opener
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Fade McDavid in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final. Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
June 7, 2024

The Stanley Cup Final begins Saturday and I'm fading one Edmonton Oilers superstar and backing another.

The pregame narrative: Connor McDavid draws a tough matchup and the under on his 1.5-point total is my best bet for the series opener. His partner in crime, Leon Draisaitl, should clear a modest shot total.

Check out these Oilers vs. Panthers props for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on June 8.

Oilers vs. Panthers props

Best bet: McDavid under 1.5 points (-121)

This pick has less to do with McDavid and more to do with who he's going up against.

Aleksander Barkov is the best defensive forward on Earth. There's no debating that, either. The 28-year-old centre just won his second Selke Trophy and has been eating up minutes against Florida's toughest opponents.

Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin combined for 140 goals this season. They scored just one — courtesy of Pastrnak — in 86:07 of even-strength ice time versus Barkov in the playoffs.

Obviously, McDavid can still get his licks in on the power play. That's where 14 of his playoff-leading 31 points have come from.

But I'm still content to fade him at this number against the Panthers.

Florida is allowing the fewest chances per 60 (55.01) and the second-fewest goals per game (2.29) this postseason. It has the second-best Corsi rate (56.22%) of any team, too, per Natural Stat Trick.

And for as good as McDavid is, he's still gone under this number in nine of 18 playoff games.

Key stat: McDavid has gone under this number in three of his last six games versus the Panthers.

Quick pick

Draisaitl over 2.5 shots (-112): If my prediction about McDavid holds true, Draisaitl will have to step up on Saturday.

Space will be hard to come by against Florida but at least he won't have to go up against Barkov's line, which is a plus.

The German winger has gone under this line in back-to-back games but cleared it in four of five contests before that.

On the whole, Draisaitl ranks 10th in the playoffs with 105 shot attempts and has recorded three or more shots in 12 of 18 playoff games.

Picks made at 10:46 a.m. on 06/07/24.

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