Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks: Game 2

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves playoff picks Game 2: Look for Doncic to score, Dallas to cover as an underdog

Luka Doncic scored 13 points in the fourth quarter of Game 1 to finish with a game-high 33. Photo by Abbie Parr/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

May 23, 2024

Led by Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks went on the road and ripped Game 1 of the Western Conference finals away from the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: I expect the Mavericks to stay competitive in Game 2 and cover a 5-point underdog spread. As for Doncic, who is getting into a groove as a scorer, I'm backing his points prop as my best bet.

Check out these Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks for Game 2 of their Western Conference finals series on May 24.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks

Best Bet: Doncic over 28.5 points (-105)

Doncic went into takeover mode when it mattered most on Wednesday, scoring 15 points in the fourth quarter to finish with a game-high 33.

That marked Doncic's third consecutive game hitting the over on 28.5 points, which shouldn't be a surprise considering he led the NBA in points per game this year (33.9).

Including the regular season and playoffs, Doncic has now cashed this points prop in 61 of 83 games (73.5%).

Doncic didn't have a particularly good shooting night in Game 1, going 12-for-26 from the field and 3-for-10 from beyond the arc. But in a way, that makes me like this pick even more.

He's the obvious alpha on Dallas, and he's bound to get a hearty volume of shots — as long as he's healthy enough for it. Firing 26 shots in 41 minutes in the series opener was an encouraging sign.

Also, it was nice to see Doncic get plenty of buckets despite a resurgence from Kyrie Irving. After averaging just 15.7 PPG in the previous series, Irving dropped 30 in the WCF opener.

Key stat: Doncic has scored 30-plus points in four straight matchups against the Timberwolves, which includes all three games against them this season.

Quick pick

Mavericks +5 (-112): Dallas couldn't buy a 3-pointer in the series opener, shooting 6-for-25 as a team from beyond the arc. But still, the Mavs were able to grind out a win on the road.

Another win is possible, but I feel a lot better about taking Dallas with some points. At this number, the Mavericks are 10-2-1 against the spread this postseason. They're also 4-1 ATS as underdogs.

Banking points with a team that has the best player on the court is a luxury, and that's what I get to do here. Dallas has the best road ATS record in the NBA this year (32-16), per Team Rankings.

Picks as of 2:00 p.m. on 05/23/2024.

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