Ronald Acuna Jr. flashed all-world power and speed last year en route to winning NL MVP honours. And he's favoured to run it back.
The latest: Acuna (+450) leads the way on the NL MVP odds leaderboard with the 2024 season about to begin. He has a trio of ex-MVPs from the Los Angeles Dodgers right behind him, while Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1,100) is an interesting name a bit further down the board.
Let's take a look at the current NL MVP odds.
NL MVP odds
Check out the latest odds to win NL MVP. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
Best NL MVP odds
The favourite: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+450)
In 2023, Acuna became MLB's fifth member of the 40-40 club (i.e., 40 home runs and 40 steals), but he didn't stop there. He swiped an MLB-high 73 bases, which is a historically high sum for a 40-homer player.
That kind of power-and-speed combo helped him to an 8.2 bWAR season and his first MVP win. But is it repeatable?
Acuna didn't even appear on the NL MVP ballot in 2021 or '22 after missing 40-plus games in both seasons. Having already torn his ACL, the 26-year-old could be susceptible to more injuries if he keeps up his run-heavy approach.
"You know what the scary part is? He's at an age where he's gonna get better."
— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) February 17, 2024
Here's 2 minutes and 37 seconds of Brian Snitker raving about Ronald Acuña Jr. 🔊 pic.twitter.com/3lTvf2gBSL
Then again, Acuna doesn't have to steal 70-plus bags again to be a legit MVP contender. It's just nice knowing he's capable of that kind of production.
When he's not dazzling on the basepaths, he's typically dealing plenty of damage from the batter's box. Acuna led the majors in hits, runs, total bases and on-base percentage last year while also pacing the NL in OPS.
You can pitch around the superstar leadoff man if you want, but it's not advised. Lurking behind him are fearsome hitters like Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna.
Other NL MVP choices
Best value: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1,100)
The past two years have been awfully tumultuous for Tatis.
He had wrist surgery in March of 2022, then shoulder surgery in the ensuing summer, followed by another wrist surgery a few months after that. In the midst of his operations, he was also suspended for performance-enhancing drug use.
In short, the 2022 season was a complete write-off. And although he returned to play for 141 games last season, Tatis never regained his previous pizazz as a hitter.
Much like his friend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tatis is seeking to regain the magic from his 2021 season, which put him on the map as an MVP candidate. That year, he led the NL in home runs (42) while posting a .975 OPS and finishing third in MVP voting.
Tatis was a decent shortstop then. He's a remarkable centerfielder now. He finished tied for 11th in the majors last year in Fielding Run Value, which is Baseball Savant's catch-all defensive metric.
It's simple: If Tatis can return to his pre-2022 hitting form while retaining his impressive value in the field, he'll be on the shortlist of candidates for this award.
NL MVP notes
- Luis Arraez (+6,000) is a long shot, but among players who don't play a premium position or hit for power, he does have a unique path for a potential win. The Marlins' second baseman flirted with a .400 batting average into early July last year. If he'd carried that to the finish line, he would've been the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941.
- He tends to play second or third-fiddle on his own team, but Austin Riley (+2,500) is a name to keep in mind. He's finished inside the top 10 in NL MVP voting in three straight seasons, clobbering 30-plus homers and posting an OPS above .850 all three years. The consistency is exceptional, but he hasn't flashed a sky-high ceiling yet.