Odds to win NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt builds biggest lead yet
Paul Goldschmidt's monster week has lifted him to shorter NL MVP odds than we've seen all season. Photo by Jeff Roberson/AP.

Can anyone catch Paul Goldschmidt in the NL MVP race? The answer has never, ever looked more like, "No."

The latest: The Cardinals first baseman has been the minus-odds favourite for quite some time, but now his lead looks to be insurmountable.

Let's take a look at the current NL MVP odds:

NL MVP odds

Check out the latest odds to win NL MVP. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

PlayerOddsOdds on Sept. 12
Paul Goldschmidt-2,500-2,000
Nolan Arenado+3,500+3,500
Freddie Freeman+3,500+3,500
Mookie Betts+6,000+6,000
Austin Riley+6,000+6,000
Trea Turner+8,000+8,000
Manny Machado+10,000+10,000
Francisco Lindor+12,500+10,000
Pete Alonso+12,500+10,000
Matt Olson+40,000+40,000
Juan Soto+50,000+50,000
Ronald Acuna Jr.+50,000+50,000

Odds as of 7:48 p.m. ET on 09/15/22.

Best NL MVP odds

The favourite: Paul Goldschmidt (-2,500)

Goldschmidt has been an always-a-bridesmaid MVP candidate throughout his career, with two runner-up finishes, a third-place finish and five other appearances on the ballot.

He's been in the spotlight throughout this season, though, and his odds are absurdly short now.

Goldschmidt has an NL-best 1.020 OPS, and he's pacing the NL in RBI, too. He's also not far off the pace for the lead in batting average or home runs, meaning we're in serious Triple Crown territory.

Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, we haven't seen a first baseman win MVP since Joey Votto in 2010. That might be coincidental, to some extent, but it's probably related to the fact that first basemen don't have the same opportunity as other positions (e.g., centre fielders and shortstops) to accrue defensive value.

Goldschmidt is a four-time Gold Glove winner, but his bat is doing plenty of talking on its own to lead him toward this award. He leads his league in fWAR, wRC+, ISO and so much more.

It's no coincidence that he's the runaway favourite.

Other NL MVP choices

Best value: Nolan Arenado (+3,500)

It's borderline impossible to make a case for any non-Goldschmidt candidate, but our best argument goes to Arenado, who can do some truly game-breaking stuff on defence.

Even if you don't care about his 99th-percentile outs above average (14) or his 11.1 UZR/150 (second among all NL fielders), plays like that one stand out. The nine-time Gold Glove winner makes plenty of highlight-worthy plays from the hot corner, and that could resonate with voters.

His bat has been more than solid all year. too.

Since August began, Arenado has a .319/.366/.610 slash line. He can't do more than he's currently doing, and yet Goldschmidt's lead isn't getting any smaller.

Interestingly, Arenado is outperforming his Baseball Savant expected stats in a notable fashion:

Stats via Baseball Savant

At an earlier juncture in the season, we'd probably be concerned about that. But in late August, we assume there isn't enough time for a seismic course correction.

And given that Arenado is second to Goldschmidt in the NL in fWAR (6.9) and wRC+ (161), he looks totally justified as the runner-up MVP candidate.

Player to watch: Freddie Freeman (+3,500)

Freeman's odds keep dropping, but not with quite the rapidity of many of those around him. And while we're not going to suggest you place a bet on him given the sheer long-shot nature of his odds, you may want to at least keep tabs.

By Baseball Savant's measures, Freeman has a 100th-percentile xBA, a 99th-percentile xwOBA, and a 98th-percentile xSLG. In other words, he's expected to do very, very well.

And he is doing well — but it's highly unlikely that his late push will be enough.

Freeman has a 1.007 OPS over his past 20 games, which is great — but it's lower than Goldschmidt's season-long rate.

Among standard stats, Freeman leads the majors in hits. doubles and batting average. But he's still not in Goldschmidt's stratosphere.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.