The first pitch of MLB's regular season is still months away, but that doesn't mean it's too early to scan the NL MVP odds.
The first pitch of MLB's regular season is still months away, but that doesn't mean it's too early to scan the NL MVP odds.
The latest: We've got co-favourites at the top of the board right now, with Mookie Betts and Juan Soto leading the charge.
Let's take a look at the current NL MVP odds:
Check out the latest odds to win NL MVP. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
Player | Odds |
Mookie Betts | +650 |
Juan Soto | +650 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | +850 |
Freddie Freeman | +1,100 |
Manny Machado | +1,100 |
Paul Goldschmidt | +1,200 |
Austin Riley | +1,200 |
Trea Turner | +1,200 |
Nolan Arenado | +1,400 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. | +1,400 |
Pete Alonso | +2,800 |
Matt Olson | +2,800 |
Francisco Lindor | +3,500 |
Xander Bogaerts | +4,000 |
Kyle Schwarber | +4,500 |
Ozzie Albies | +5,000 |
Jazz Chisholm | +5,000 |
Bryce Harper | +5,000 |
Odds as of 2:20 p.m. ET on 01/29/23.
The favourites: Mookie Betts, Juan Soto (+650)
Awards markets are never as wide-open as in the offseason, so it makes sense to see a pair of players topping this list together.
Betts earned MVP honours on the American League side in 2018, and he's come awfully close to winning in two of his three seasons in the NL. After finishing runner-up to Freddie Freeman in 2020, Betts posted a fifth-place finish last year.
The 30-year-old is on a Hall of Fame pace with an OPS+ of 126 or better in each of his past five seasons. He took home Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards in four of those five years, too.
Simply put, Betts is a five-tool player who is still in his prime and is more than capable of taking home another MVP.
Silver Slugger, Mookie Betts. pic.twitter.com/nzq25XqvQy
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) November 10, 2022
His co-favourite, Soto, has been nothing but excellent since breaking into the majors as a teenager in 2018. But last season was a bit of a step back by Soto's lofty standards.
Soto finished ninth in MVP voting in 2019, then fifth in 2020, and then second in 2021. Then he posted a career-low .853 OPS this past season — still excellent, but not MVP-calibre — and was left off the MVP ballot entirely.
The 24-year-old is known for having arguably the keenest eye in the majors, which has helped him lead the league in walks in consecutive seasons. But putting the ball in play is important too, and his 95th percentile expected slugging percentage (.501), per Baseball Savant, extended far beyond reality (.452).
Perhaps some improved batted-ball luck is coming for Soto. That would certainly help his case, although a crowded Padres lineup (featuring four of the NL's top 14 MVP candidates) could work against him.
Best value: Paul Goldschmidt (+1,200)
It's been 10 years since anybody won back-to-back MVPs (Tigers' Miguel Cabrera), but Goldschmidt could have a run at it.
The ultra-durable first baseman has played 150-plus games in each of his past seven full seasons (as well as 58 of 60 games in 2020), and he's been consistently great.
Sure, his 180 OPS+ in 2022 was the high-water mark of his career, but Goldy has surpassed the 140 OPS+ threshold in five of his past six seasons. In that span, he's finished in the top-six of MVP voting four times — including last year's win.
Baseball Savant's park factors grade Busch Stadium as one of the most unfriendly offensive environments, but that clearly didn't bother Goldschmidt. In fact, his OPS at home (1.092) was markedly better than on the road (.877).
Player to watch: Bryce Harper (+5,000)
A 50-to-1 shot on a two-time MVP sounds pretty interesting, but it's not without sizeable risk.
Harper was left off last year's ballot after only playing 99 games, and he'll miss some time this coming season while recovering from elbow surgery. That recovery time is unknown, but NBC Sports' Jim Salisbury projects Harper will miss at least a month of the season — and possibly several weeks more.
Last year, Harper proved he could play even while dealing with the elbow injury, as he spent 90 games as a designated hitter.
Hovering around the 100-game mark won't be good enough for MVP consideration, though, especially if most or all of those games are spent at DH. It'll be worthwhile to track Harper's offseason progress and see what his projected recovery timeline looks like.