Timberwolves vs. Suns SGP picks Game 3: Back Nurkic's assists prop, fade Towns on the glass
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Jusuf Nurkic has averaged 4.4 assists since the beginning of March. Photo by Matt York/AP.
Jordan Horrobin
@JordanHorrobin
April 26, 2024

We're rolling with a props-only parlay for Game 3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves versus Phoenix Suns series.

The pregame narrative: Jusuf Nurkic has been an active passer for the Suns and I expect that to continue on home court. As for the T-Wolves, Mike Conley is worth backing beyond the arc and I don't trust Karl-Anthony Towns as a rebounder.

Check out the full Timberwolves vs. Suns SGP picks for Game 3 of their first-round matchup on April 26.

Timberwolves vs. Suns SGP picks

Parlay: Nurkic over 3.5 assists + Towns under 7.5 rebounds + Conley over 1.5 threes (+320)

Nurkic over 3.5 assists (-150): Devin Booker is a shoot-first point guard, which means he doesn't hog all the assists to himself. Phoenix has plenty of capable facilitators and Nurkic is one of them.

The 7-footer averaged 4.0 assists during the regular season. He really found his passing touch over the final month and a half, averaging 4.6 assists and cashing this prop in 14 of his last 21 games.

Nurkic has gone over this line in four of five matchups with the Timberwolves (playoffs included).

According to NBA.com's play tracking metrics, Nurkic is second on the Suns in passes per game this series (41.5) and he's generating 6.0 potential assists per game.

Other parlay picks

Towns under 7.5 rebounds (-136): Phoenix and Minnesota are both very strong rebounding teams and Towns still seems to have a muzzle on his minutes count.

Towns have had a sub-30 minutes total in all four games since returning from a knee injury. He did land on exactly eight rebounds last time out, but he hit the under in all three games before that (including once against Phoenix).

On the season, KAT has gone under 7.5 rebounds in three of four games against the Suns.

With no guarantee of a minutes increase, plus a bevy of other capable rebounders on the floor, I'm content to fade Towns at this number.

Conley over 1.5 threes (-215): Conley came up empty on just three 3-point attempts in Game 1. But he righted the ship in Game 2 and should continue to deliver confidently from deep.

The 17th-year guard posted a career-best 3-point percentage this season (44.2%) and averaged 2.4 makes per game.

He's gone over 1.5 threes in 48 of 78 (61.5%) games. More importantly, he closed out the regular season on a heater.

Conley shot 51.4% from deep over his final 12 regular season games and cashed this line nine times.

Picks as of 12:50 p.m. on 04/26/2024.

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