Bruins vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds Game 4: Bet on another low-scoring game
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Bet on another tightly-contested game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins. Photo by Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press.
Steven Psihogios
@StevenPsihogios
April 25, 2024

The Toronto Maple Leafs aim to even up their series against the Boston Bruins in Game 4.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing mistake-free hockey and there hasn't been a boatload of offence. The under on the game total is my best bet for this contest. Additionally, Boston is a solid choice to win at even money.

Check out the best Maple Leafs picks and odds vs. the Bruins on April 27.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins

Best Bet: Under 6 goals (-115)

An offensive outburst from Toronto or Boston seems unlikely at this point.

The Maple Leafs' top stars are struggling to score. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares have combined for five points through three games, a total that's certainly not going to cut it.

The trio's shortcomings are highly correlated with the team's underwhelming power-play performances.

Toronto has the worst man-advantage rate (9.1%) of any Eastern Conference team in the playoffs, going 1-for-11.

Boston's elite goaltending duo is making its presence felt in the postseason. It has the best save percentage (.940) of any squad in the playoffs.

The Bruins aren't a prolific bunch offensively. They tied for 13th in goals per game during the regular season (3.21) and are averaging a slightly higher 3.67 goals per contest in the playoffs.

Key stat: The under on six goals has hit or pushed in six of seven meetings between Boston and Toronto this season.

Quick pick

Bruins moneyline (+100): This series has been evenly matched.

Boston has matched Toronto's perceived offensive edge while the latter has upped its defensive efforts to keep pace with the former. The teams have essentially nullified each other in these two facets of the game.

All that leaves is goaltending and it's clear at this point which team is stronger.

The Bruins can start Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark and either profile as a better starting option than Ilya Samsonov.

Samsonov hasn't been bad in this series but he does own an unimpressive .895 save percentage. He's been average in the playoffs and that's not going to be good enough against Boston.

I'll take the better goaltender in a game where the margin for error is very thin.

Picks made at 3:46 p.m. on 04/25/24.

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