The Toronto Blue Jays cap a three-game series with the Oakland Athletics on Sunday, and the Jays have a chance to win the series.

The pregame narrative: It'll be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays, which could get messy, but I'm still willing to fade Oakland's run total at plus money. Offensively, I like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Davis Schneider to put up solid numbers today.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics for June 9.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Best Bet: Athletics under 3.5 runs (+102)

Last year, the Blue Jays had one of the best bullpens in baseball. They posted a 3.68 ERA (eighth in MLB) with a 1.23 WHIP (fourth).

Despite deploying largely the same crew this year, those numbers have ballooned to a 4.89 ERA (29th) and a 1.31 WHIP (19th). Bullpens can be fickle that way.

After Kevin Gausman tossed a complete game last night, Toronto will turn Sunday's game over to Bowden Francis and a cavalcade of other short-inning arms. Every reliever should be available, which means John Schneider can target matchups that put Toronto at an advantage.

And really, this bet isn't about Toronto's bullpen. It's about the guys on the other side.

The A's have been dreadful lately, scoring just eight runs over their past six games. They've hit this under all six times.

On the season, Oakland has gone under 3.5 runs in 42 of 66 games (63.6%). And over the past two weeks, the A's are batting just .200 as a team.

With all of that in mind, fading the A's on a 3.5-run total has been a profitable play this season. And it looks especially good with the way the lineup is struggling right now.

The Blue Jays' bullpen isn't acting as a strength like it did a year ago, but the group has been a bit better lately, and that helps this bet, too.

Key stat: Over the past two weeks, Blue Jays relievers have allowed a .228 opponent batting average, which ranks 15th in the majors.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+114): My guy Avery Perri took this bet yesterday and it cashed on Guerrero's fifth-inning double. Make that three games in a row for Vladdy going over 1.5 bases.

It's no longer fair to say that Guerrero is heating up. He's just hot. From May 8 to June 8, the first baseman has posted a .370/.452/.509 slash line.

Neither Guerrero nor anyone else on the Jays has ever faced A's starter Mitch Spence, but I like Vlad's chances to succeed. Over 80.0% of Spence's pitches to righties are cutters and sliders, per Baseball Savant, and those are two offerings that Guerrero has hit very well.

Against cutters and sliders this year, Guerrero has a .286/.386/.643 slash line in 56 at-bats.

Schneider over 0.5 runs (-113): Unlike Guerrero, Schneider has gone cold in recent games. But similar to Guerrero, he crushes cutters and sliders.

In 49 at-bats against those pitches, Schneider has a .327/.353/.653 slash line. He also has an impressive 11.7% walk rate on the season, which ranks in the 84th percentile.

From the leadoff spot, Schneider is still positioned with the best opportunity to score among Jays hitters.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. on 06/09/24.