I'm tailing two players and fading another in today's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Cole Ragans is in a groove right now, and he should be able to keep that going against a team that hasn't seen his stuff yet. I also like Yordan Alvarez's chances to notch an RBI in a plus matchup. Elsewhere, Elly De La Cruz is in a slump that likely won't end at the hands of Cubs ace Shota Imanaga.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 9.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: De La Cruz under 0.5 hits (+138)
If you love baseball, you probably love watching De La Cruz. He's fast, he has a rocket arm and he can hit the ball a mile.
De La Cruz is far from perfect, though. And he's certainly not immune to a fade pick when the right matchup comes around.
The switch-hitting shortstop is far better from the left side, but he'll be on the right side today against the left-handed Imanaga. As a righty batter, De La Cruz is just 40-for-198 (.202) in his career.
Imanaga has held righties to a .222 batting average this year with a simple and effective approach. He typically throws just two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a splitter.
The splitter is the key because it keeps opponents off balance. According to Baseball Savant, Imanaga has garnered a 46.5% whiff rate on his splitter — that's the 10th-highest rate among all MLB splitters.
De La Cruz is 0-for-9 with six strikeouts against splitters this year.
When De La Cruz is in the box, there's a high chance of an all-or-nothing result. And he does come up empty ... a lot.
His whiff rate and strikeout rate both rank in the bottom 10 percentile of the league, while his xBA (.229) is in the 20th percentile.
From his weaker side, against a pitcher who has the tools to shut him down, this is a good spot to fade De La Cruz.
Key stat: In his past 21 games, De La Cruz is batting .165 and has gone hitless 11 times.
Quick picks
Parlay: Ragans 18+ outs, 7+ Ks (-104): Ragans has never faced the Seattle Mariners before, but he has what it takes to toss a gem against them.
The hard-throwing lefty has a 2.72 ERA over his past seven starts, and he's gone over 17.5 outs in six of those games. On the season, he's cashed that outs prop in nine of 13.
Seattle is batting just .221 against lefties, which ranks 28th in the majors, so Ragans should be able to keep the sticks relatively quiet.
As for strikeouts, Ragans is averaging 6.8 per game and has gone over a 6.5-strikeout prop in five of his past seven outings.
Seattle owns the league's highest K rate (28.7%).
Alvarez over 0.5 RBI (+133): Lefty-on-lefty matchups haven't been an issue for Alvarez this year. In fact, he's been awesome in that scenario, posting a .337 BA in 89 at-bats.
No matter which hand the ball is coming from these days, Alvarez has pulverized opposing pitchers. He has a .390 BA and .701 SLG in his past 20 games. This month, he has cashed his RBI prop in five of seven matchups.
I think he can keep that up against Los Angeles Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval this afternoon.
As a team, the Houston Astros have a .310 BA and .552 SLG against Sandoval, so there should be ample traffic on the basepaths.
Picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 06/09/2024.