Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox: June 17

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Red Sox June 17: Look for Varsho to help spark the offence

Daulton Varsho has gone over 1.5 bases in eight of 14 starts this month. Photo by Carlos Osorio/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

June 17, 2024

For the first time all season, the Toronto Blue Jays match up against the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: Toronto hasn't been a strong overs team this year, but I like the matchup tonight with a low projected total. On an individual level, look for Daulton Varsho to continue his June power surge.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 17.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-114)

Boston comes to town with a quality offensive lineup and a starting pitcher that Toronto has knocked around before. That sounds like a nice recipe for runs.

The Red Sox are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which ranks 10th in the majors. And they've done some excellent work over the past two weeks:

1st in OBP (.378)
4th in wRC+ (132)
4th in walk rate (10.0%)

Fresh off a Sunday Night Baseball win at Fenway Park, the Red Sox have now gone over 7.5 runs in five straight games — and in 13 of their past 15.

Toronto's offence hasn't done quite as much damage in recent games (or in the season at large), but this group has touched up Boston starter Nick Pivetta many times before.

Pivetta, a Victoria, B.C. native, has allowed a .305 BA and .553 SLG in 161 at-bats against the Blue Jays' current lineup, per Baseball Savant. Five of Toronto's regulars have already homered off the right-hander.

This year, Pivetta's main strength has been his ability to wriggle out of trouble with strikeouts. But he isn't likely to replicate that success against a Blue Jays team that has the fourth-lowest K rate in the majors.

Key stat: Since 2022, three of Pivetta's four starts at Rogers Centre went over 7.5 runs.

Quick pick

Varsho over 1.5 bases (+185): Varsho is having a really solid month so far posting a .277/.333/.532 slash line in 14 starts.

In those 14 starts, Varsho has cashed this prop eight times.

As a lefty hitter, Varsho has the platoon advantage over the right-handed Pivetta. Varsho's batting average is a bit better against lefties, inexplicably, but his career SLG against righties (.442) is almost 100 points higher.

Also, Varsho is 4-for-8 against Pivetta with a pair of home runs.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 06/17/24.

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