Blue Jays picks and props vs. Royals: April 24 | NorthStar Bets

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Royals April 24: Back Bo Bichette, fade KC starter Alec Marsh

The Blue Jays continue their four-game set against the Royals on Wednesday. Photo by Chris Young/The Canadian Press.

Chris Toman

April 24, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals continue their four-game set at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Each team has taken a game so far and the Blue Jays are once again road favourites. Toronto has been favoured each game and tonight sends Yariel Rodriguez to the hill, opposite Kansas City's Alec Marsh.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for April 24.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best Bet: Marsh under 4.5 Ks (-137)

Marsh is 2-2 against this line through four starts, clearing it twice against the Baltimore Orioles.

He should have a difficult time topping this modest line again. Here's why:

Toronto has the fifth-lowest K rate in MLB
The Blue Jays are third in contact rate
Only the Yankees swing at fewer pitches out of the zone than the Jays

Marsh's teammate, Michael Wacha, had four punchouts against Toronto last night. In the start before that, Brady Singer, who entered with a career-high K rate, managed five.

In Toronto's previous series, all three Padres starters fell below this number.

Marsh had good strikeout numbers across three levels last season, which included his first taste of the bigs. But his K rate is down to a pedestrian 17.8% this season.

The league-average mark for starters, per FanGraphs, is 22.2%.

Marsh has flashed excellent control without a viable putaway pitch this season. That should limit his ability to pile up Ks against a Blue Jays team that excels at putting the ball in play.

Key stat: Over Toronto's last four series, including this one, starters are 4-7 against this line.

Quick pick

Bichette over 1.5 total bases (-104): Marsh's K rate is down and so is Bichette's — considerably.

Bichette hasn't been chasing as much, leading to more walks, but his BB% is still below league average. He hasn't struck out more than once in a game this season and is making contact at a career-high mark.

I like his chances of putting the ball in play against Marsh and the Royals bullpen, which has the lowest K rate among all relief groups in baseball.

The power hasn't been there for Bichette but it will come, and he's capable of clearing this without extra-base hits. Bichette was batting .205 through the team's first 10 games, and he enters tonight at .241.

He has multi-hit games in two of his last six, topping this line four times over that period. His spot as Toronto's No. 3 hitter is cemented.

Picks made at 1:21 p.m. on 04/24/24.

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