After a crushing loss in Game 2, the Los Angeles Lakers look to get back in the series against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: L.A. hasn't beaten Denver since December 2022, and I'm not banking on that to change. My best bet is the over and I also expect LeBron to collect plenty of rebounds and assists.

Check out these Nuggets vs. Lakers picks for Game 3 of their first-round series on April 25.

Nuggets vs. Lakers picks

Best Bet: Over 215 points (-110)

This series is a battle between the overs-heavy Lakers and the unders-heavy Nuggets. The under is 2-0 so far, but I think this line is a bit of an overcorrection as the series shifts to Los Angeles.

Yes, the under is 6-3 dating back to last year's playoff series. But the over/under for each of those games was set at 222.5 points or higher.

Looking back over the past 12 matchups between L.A. and Denver — since Oct. 30, 2022 — the average game total was 226.4 points. And 10 of those games went over 215 points.

This is the lowest over/under the Lakers have seen all season. Maybe that's not a surprise considering the under has cashed in both games of this series and the Nuggets hit the under at a league-high 58.3% clip.

But keep in mind that the Lakers' rate of hitting overs is 55.3%. We have a robust track record of recent matchups between these squads, and that track record suggests this is a good spot to back the over.

Key stat: Since the start of the 2022-23 season, all six Lakers/Nuggets games played in Los Angeles finished over 215 points.

Quick picks

Nuggets moneyline (-109): NBA bettors can look at Denver's comeback win in Game 2 one of two ways.

One perspective would say the Lakers were the better team for much of the way and are close to snapping what is now a 10-game losing streak against the Nuggets.

But the other perspective would say that if the Lakers can't close out that game — a game they led by 10 going into the fourth quarter — what hope remains?

I'm siding with the latter.

Denver had nine players attempt at least one 3-pointer on Sunday, and only two of them cashed in. As a team, the Nuggets shot 8-of-34 from deep (23.5%). They ranked 10th in the NBA in 3-point shooting this season (37.4%).

Anticipating a bounce back in that regard, paired with the fact that Denver has dominated L.A. for 15 months and counting, makes this a worthwhile play.

LeBron over 16.5 rebounds/assists (-103): LeBron has always been a do-it-all player, but he's been more productive as a passer and rebounder in the L.A. era of his career.

As a Laker, he's averaging 15.9 rebounds/assists in the regular season and 17.7 RA in the playoffs. At his previous stops, he was at 14.6 RA in the regular season and 16.0 RA in the playoffs.

LeBron is bound to get his buckets, but his post as a floor general goes much further than that. And you needn't remind Denver.

The King has gone over 16.5 rebounds/assists in five of his past six playoff matchups against the Nuggets, averaging 18.7 RA in those games.

Picks as of 1:05 p.m. on 04/24/2024.