I have one prop bet from each of Thursday's NBA playoff games.
The pregame narrative: The Philadelphia 76ers' backs are against the wall and I'm expecting a signature performance from Joel Embiid. Jamal Murray put a dagger into the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 and should carry that momentum forward, while Darius Garland is worth fading in Orlando.
Check out these NBA prop bets for April 25.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Murray over 23.5 points (-112)
Murray was a ghost through the first seven quarters of this series before exploding when it mattered most.
The Canadian guard scored 14 fourth-quarter points on Monday, capping off the Nuggets' comeback with this buzzer-beater:
JAMAL MURRAY GAME-WINNER.
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 23, 2024
Nugs complete 20-pt comeback 😱🚨 pic.twitter.com/UnY7ezrTD8
He ended the game with 20 points – which was still under his 24.5 line that I took the over on — but I'm confident Murray will put together a more complete effort on Thursday.
Murray averaged 32.5 points per game in last year's Western Conference final versus Los Angeles, clearing this line in each contest.
He also went over this mark in two of three regular-season games against L.A.
Murray has been within spitting distance of this mark in both games (he scored 22 points in Game 1) despite shooting 37.5% from the field in each contest.
That's well below his 48.1% season-long average. Here's hoping the late flurry in Game 2 was a sign of things to come.
Key stat: Los Angeles gave up the seventh-most points per game to point guards this season, per Fantasy Pros.
Quick picks
Embiid over 31.5 points (-109): Embiid capped off his 34-point performance in Game 2 by lamenting the officiating in the locker room.
That's a bit ironic considering 19 of his 63 points this postseason (30.0%) have come at the line.
Personal opinions aside, Embiid's ability to draw contact is second to none. He averaged 11.6 FTA per game this year, the most in the NBA and 2.9 clear of anyone not named Giannis Antetokounmpo.
That makes him liable to clear this total on any given night.
The reigning MVP and scoring champion averaged 35.7 points in 24 home games this season. He cleared this mark 15 times and came a basket short on four more occasions.
New York plays aggressive, unrelenting defence, so I'm a bit worried about how his knee will hold up under heavy minutes. But if he can get through the game in one piece this should be a cinch.
Garland under 24.5 PRA (-115): Garland hasn't been the first or second shooting option on the Cavaliers this series and he faces an incredibly tough matchup to record assists and rebounds.
The Orlando Magic gave up the fifth-fewest points and fifth-fewest rebounds to point guards this season, according to Fantasy Pros.
Donovan Mitchell is leading the Cleveland Cavaliers with 21.5 FGA/game and Evan Mobley is next at 12.5.
That leaves little room for error if Garland is to clear this line. He narrowly cleared it with 25 PRA in Game 1 and fell short of it with 22 PRA in Game 2.
The Magic had the second-best home defensive rating (107.7) in the league this year so it's hard to imagine things getting any easier for the point guard.
Picks made at 4:22 p.m. on 04/24/2024.