Blue Jays picks and props vs. White Sox May 21: Bet on Danny Jansen to stay hot
Photo by Chris Katsarov/CP.

A compelling lefty-on-lefty matchup between Yusei Kikuchi and Garrett Crochet takes over Rogers Centre on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Toronto Blue Jays' offence exploded in a 9-3 win yesterday, but I'm not expecting nearly as much offence tonight. My best bet is the under on the first-five-inning market, and I'm also eyeing player props for Crochet and Danny Jansen.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the White Sox for May 21.

Blue Jays picks vs. White Sox

Best Bet: Under 3.5 runs - first five innings (-120)

The typical over/under for an F5 line is 4.5 runs. So the fact that this line is one run lower — and still shaded toward the under — says a lot about the starting pitching matchup.

Crochet's 4.18 ERA doesn't paint an accurate picture of how he's performed to this point in the season. Based on his ability to accrue strikeouts and weak contact, Crochet has a 2.20 expected ERA, per Baseball Savant.

Among 80 qualified pitchers, Crochet's 2.20 xERA is the second-lowest mark in the majors.

Home runs have been Crochet's biggest issue. He has a 16.0% HR/fly-ball rate, which is sixth-highest among qualified pitchers.

But the Blue Jays rank 25th in homers, clubbing 39 in 46 games.

Kikuchi has a 2.60 ERA and an excellent 2.74 xERA. He has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his past eight starts.

In Kikuchi's nine starts, the average F5 run total is just 2.8 runs. This under has cashed in six of those games.

As for Crochet, this F5 under is 3-1 in his past four starts. He's on a 14-inning scoreless streak entering tonight.

Key stat: Toronto and Chicago rank 27th and 30th, respectively, in runs per game.

Quick pick

Jansen over 1.5 bases (+130): Jansen is worth a flier at a price like this. He's hit the over in 12 of 19 starts (63.2%) and was just promoted to the No. 2 spot in the lineup.

Yesterday, in his first game as the No. 2 hitter, Jansen went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run and five RBI. That marked his eighth game over 1.5 bases this month (in 11 starts).

Jansen has never faced Crochet, and it likely won't be an easy matchup. But the catcher has slugged .497 against lefties since 2022 and is red hot right now.

Crochet over 5.5 Ks (+100): Toronto has the league's second-lowest strikeout rate against lefties, but this still looks like a compelling price for Crochet.

Most of the Blue Jays' lineup has never seen the hard-throwing lefty, who ranks in the 94th percentile for extension and the 95th percentile for K rate, per Baseball Savant.

Crochet has cleared this total in eight of 10 games this year, averaging 7.0 Ks per start. His 12.2 K/9 leads the majors.

If Crochet can work into the sixth inning, or even just the fifth, I'll feel really good about him cashing this prop.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 05/21/24.

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