It's do-or-die time for the Los Angeles Clippers, who are on the road Friday night to face the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6.

The pregame narrative: The Mavericks rolled to a 30-point win on the road in Game 5 and are heavy favourites to close out this playoff series. I'm fading Paul George as my best bet and looking for the over to hit in a third straight game.

Check out these Clippers vs. Mavericks picks for Game 6 of their first-round series on May 3.

Clippers vs. Mavericks picks

Best Bet: George under 29.5 points/assists (-125)

I cashed an under on George's points prop in Game 5, and he's worth fading again in what could be his final game as a Clipper.

George, who has a player option for next season, hasn't been nearly productive enough to warrant a points/assists line like this. He's averaging 24.6 PA in this playoff series and has hit the under in four of five games.

The exception was a heat check shooting spree in Game 4 when George sank 7-of-10 threes. He finished with 33 points and a series-best eight assists.

In the other four games, George has shot just 9-of-29 (31.0%) from beyond the arc while averaging just 4.0 assists.

Kawhi Leonard has missed three of five games in this series, but even if he's out again, there's no guarantee George can pick up the slack.

In 14 games without Leonard this season (playoffs included), George has hit this under 11 times.

Key stat: George has finished under 29.5 points/assists in six of seven games against the Mavericks this season.

Quick pick

Over 207 points (-110): Leonard's availability might not sway my stance on fading George, but it means a lot for the game total.

In Games 2 and 3, with Leonard in the lineup, the total finished below 200 points both times.

But with the two-time Defensive Player of the Year in street clothes for Games 4 and 5, the total finished above 215 points in each.

Both Games 4 and 5 had their total set at 209 totals points. After the over cashed comfortably in those games, it's interesting to see a slightly lower line for Game 6.

We may not know Leonard's availability until Friday afternoon, but the team has reportedly stated that there is "no timetable" for his return, according to the Los Angeles Times. If he misses, this looks like a great spot for an over.

Picks as of 3:50 p.m. on 05/02/2024.