Maple Leafs vs. Bruins picks and odds Game 2: Bet on Toronto to even the series
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Toronto has won four of its last six playoff road games. Photo by Graham Hughes/CP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
April 21, 2024

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to even their series against the Boston Bruins on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto's offence was stonewalled on Saturday but it dominated 5-on-5 play, and I expect a reversal of fortune in Game 2. Bet on the Maple Leafs to win and take the over on their goal total.

Check out the best Maple Leafs picks and odds vs. the Bruins for April 22.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins

Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (+118)

Maple Leafs fans weren't given much to cheer about on Saturday but the sky isn't falling just yet.

Toronto carried play throughout most of the game and the stats would back that up.

The team generated 62.65% of even-strength chances and 59.44% of even-strength expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick.

But chances and expected goals don't mean squat if you can't put the puck in the net.

Ilya Samsonov struggled while Jeremy Swayman stood on his head and that was one of the two differences in the game. The other was special teams, as Toronto went 0-for-3 on the powerplay while Boston went 2-for-5.

Luckily for the Leafs, there's a good chance neither of those goalies will play in Game 2.

Samsonov has allowed four-plus goals in three straight starts and it's hard to imagine Sheldon Keefe going back to him staring down an 0-2 hole.

Joseph Woll hasn't been fantastic since returning from injury but he posted a stellar .915 save percentage and 2.43 GAA in the playoffs last year. I trust him to put forth a solid effort on Monday.

As for the Bruins, the team seems to be standing by its two-goalie rotation, which would mean starting Linus Ulmark on Monday. Ulmark is a solid goalie in his own right but melted down in the playoffs last year.

If the Leafs can play the way they did in Game 1 with a touch more discipline, they should head home with a split.

Key stat: Toronto is 4-2 on the road in the playoffs since the start of last year.

Quick pick

Leafs over 2.5 goals (-137): I'm not going to try and bury the lede: The Maple Leafs have failed to score three-plus goals in eight straight playoff games.

That's not a typo, and it's definitely concerning, but something has to give.

Toronto scored the second-most goals per game (3.63) during the regular season. It cleared this total 73.17% of the time including in eight of 10 games down the stretch.

The playoffs are a different beast and teams don't give up as much ice, but I'm encouraged enough by Toronto's 5v5 play to back it in this market.

Capitalizing on power play opportunities will be important, too.

Picks made at 1:33 p.m. on 04/21/24.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.