Two underdogs and two favourites find their way into my top picks for the first round of the NHL playoffs.
The pregame narrative: The Boston Bruins have been the Toronto Maple Leafs' boogeyman and they're coming to get Toronto yet again. I like the underdog Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets to advance and I'm betting on the Dallas Stars to beat the Vegas Golden Knights.
Check out my best NHL first-round series picks below.
NHL first-round series picks overview
| Pick | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Bruins to win | -132 | Add to betslip |
| Lightning to win | +150 | Add to betslip |
| Jets to win | +116 | Add to betslip |
| Stars to win | -139 | Add to betslip |
NHL odds as of 3:33 p.m. ET on 04/19/2024.
NHL first-round series picks
Best Bet: Bruins to win (-132)
The goaltending mismatch here is just too large for me to ignore.
The Bruins were one of two teams to have a pair of starters rank inside the top 10 in save percentage this season. Jeremy Swayman (.916) and Linus Ullmark (.915) were both sensational for a second consecutive season.
The former, specifically, tormented Toronto in the regular season. Swayman held the Maple Leafs to four goals in three outings, posting an impressive .959 save percentage.
The combination of Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll isn't working out for Toronto. The Maple Leafs rank a worrisome 25th in save percentage (.889) since Woll's return, the worst of any playoff team.
Boston has crushed Toronto's postseason hopes three times since 2013 and I'm expecting more of the same.
Key stat: The Bruins have won seven consecutive games against the Maple Leafs.
Quick picks
Lightning to win (+150): The Battle of Florida promises to be excellent, and I'm picking the underdog to pull off the upset.
Tampa Bay has been strong since acquiring Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba. The team is 12-4-2 since the trade deadline, boasting the best record of any Atlantic Division team during that stretch.
The Florida Panthers, meanwhile, are a pedestrian 9-7-2 over the same span. That includes a 5-3 loss to a surging Lightning squad on March 16.
The Bolts are battle-tested with three Cup appearances in the last four years. An early exit last postseason should help push them in 2024.
Jets to win (+116): Here's another plus-money pick for the first round.
This is the largest goaltending mismatch of the first round. Likely Vezina Trophy candidate, Connor Hellebuyck, battles an unsettled Colorado Avalanche crease.
Alexandar Georgiev posted a .897 save percentage in the regular season. He was especially brutal down the stretch, producing a .840 mark across his last six starts.
Unproven netminder Justus Annunen is the other option. He had a .928 save percentage in 14 starts but has never played in the postseason before.
Winnipeg swept the season series against Colorado, outscoring the Avs 17-4.
Stars to win (-139): Lastly, I'm picking Dallas to beat Vegas.
The Golden Knights actually swept the season series against the Stars, 3-0, but all three contests occurred in 2023.
That's significant considering Vegas' struggles since the calendar flipped. The team owns the worst record of any playoff team (23-19-3) in 2024.
There isn't one glaring weakness, either, which creates more cause for concern. The Golden Knights scored a mediocre 3.11 goals per game and allowed an equally pedestrian 3.13 goals during this stretch.
Dallas, on the other hand, has the third-best record of any team in 2024 (30-12-5) and should roll in this series.
Picks made as of 4:02 p.m. on 04/19/24.