Three pitcher props make up today's MLB recommendations.
The pregame narrative: I like the over on Cole Ragans' out prop, as well as Reynaldo Lopez's. I'm also fading Canadian right-hander Michael Soroka.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 30.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Ragans over 16.5 outs (-117)
This line has largely been at 17.5 around even money for most of the morning. Getting a 16.5 line at this price represents excellent value.
The Kansas City Royals starter faced the Toronto Blue Jays his last time out and held them to one run on three hits before the game was called after five innings.
He was tattooed in his start before that and didn't escape the second. But he cleared this in three of his first four outings, posting 29 strikeouts, seven walks and a 1.93 ERA over that stretch.
Ragans has only allowed one homer this season and faces a Jays team that largely lacks power, ranking 20th in both homers and ISO.
We shouldn't be too worried about a big fly blowing up Ragans' outing, which will help his chances of working deeper.
Only three pitchers since the start of last season (minimum 100 innings) have a lower home run/fly ball rate.
Toronto sports an average offence (101 wRC+) that has struggled to score. The club is averaging 3.63 runs per game, ranking 26th in MLB.
On top of that, Kansas City's bullpen was worked in yesterday's series opener after starter Jonathan Bowlan gave them 2.2 innings.
Key stat: After joining the Royals mid-season last year and converting to a starting role, Ragans cleared this line in 10 of 12 starts.
Quick picks
Soroka under 4.5 Ks (-141): You'll have to pay for this, but it's worth it.
Not even against a strikeout-heavy team that's the Minnesota Twins (sixth in K rate) am I tempted to back the Chicago White Sox right-hander.
Soroka has the lowest K rate (9.8%) among 76 qualified starting pitchers. If that sounds bad, it is.
We have to go back to 2012 (Henderson Alvarez) to find a qualified starter with a K rate below 10% in a single season, per FanGraphs.
Soroka faced the Twins in his last start and had one punchout over five innings. He went under this line in each of his five starts before that, too.
Lopez over 16.5 outs (-117): The Seattle Mariners have been miserable offensively and play at the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB.
Seattle hitters have the highest K rate in baseball and Lopez has been excellent at getting hitters to chase, leading to a 26.1 K%.
He's going to miss some bats tonight and his arsenal should work in his favour, too.
Seattle is a bottom-five team in runs above average against curveballs and sliders, according to Statcast data at FanGraphs. Lopez has a tremendous 45% whiff rate on both pitches, per Baseball Savant.
It sounds like I'm talking up his strikeout prop, but I think a 6.5 line is still a bit aggressive.
Like the recommendation I gave on teammate Max Fried yesterday, I'd rather back Lopez on his outs prop in this favourable matchup.
Even if a big strikeout game runs up his pitch count, Lopez should still be able to clear this number. He tossed seven innings last outing and is a perfect 4-0 against this line.
Picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET on 04/30/2024.