MLB prop bets: May 2 | NorthStar Bets

Best MLB prop bets May 2: Bet on Kyle Tucker to stay hot vs. Guardians

Kyle Tucker has homered in three of his past four games. Photo by Michael Wyke/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

May 2, 2024

There are only six MLB games going on Thursday, but I've still got my eye on three plus-money plays.

The pregame narrative: In the afternoon, both Nathaniel Lowe and CJ Abrams have value to score in a matchup between the Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals. Later on, I'm bullish Kyle Tucker's bases prop as he continues to rake for the Houston Astros.

Check out the top MLB prop bets for May 2.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lowe over 0.5 runs (+106)

An oblique strain forced Lowe to miss the first 21 games of the Rangers' season, but he's done an excellent job of making up for lost time.

Through 10 games, Lowe has posted a .314/.415/.429 slash line, reaching base 18 times versus just eight strikeouts.

Lowe's 14.6% walk rate is among the best in the majors, and there's reason to believe he could keep it up. The first baseman finished in the top 10 percentile for walk rate in two of the three previous seasons.

After initially slotting into the fifth spot in the Rangers' batting order, Lowe has since shifted back to his more usual No. 3 spot. That's a better spot for him to score from, especially with Adolis Garcia batting cleanup.

Garcia is 10th in MLB in slugging percentage (.578) and tied for fifth in home runs (eight).

Today, Lowe is at a perceived platoon disadvantage against Mitchell Parker in a lefty-lefty matchup. But Lowe is arguably just as effective against lefties as he is against righties (.807 OPS vs. RHPs, .773 OPS vs. LHPs).

Key stat: Lowe has reached base twice in each of his past three games.

Quick picks

Abrams over 0.5 runs (+115): The over/under for Nationals versus Rangers is only eight runs, so maybe I shouldn't be backing another run prop in this matchup. But Abrams has been so, so good.

Abrams, one of the key returning pieces from the Nationals' Juan Soto trade in 2022, has a .957 OPS from the leadoff spot. That includes seven homers and a league-best four triples.

The shortstop has scored 16 runs in his past 16 games, cashing this prop 12 times.

Washington is below average in terms of runs per game (4.0, 20th in MLB), but if someone is going to score, it'll likely be Abrams.

Tucker over 1.5 bases (+108): Tucker has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Backing him at plus money should almost be an auto-play right now.

Since April 12, Tucker has recorded multiple bases in 11 of 16 games, posting a 1.261 OPS in that span. He's also homered in three of his past four.

Like Lowe, Tucker sees a lefty-lefty matchup on Thursday that I'm not at all concerned by.

In his career, Tucker's OPS against lefties (.864) is actually slightly better than his OPS against righties (.856).

Picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 05/02/2024.

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