Monday is Memorial Day south of the border, which means a steady diet of afternoon baseball.
The pregame narrative: I've got a plus-money prop bet on Bryce Miller in Monday's nightcap, but let's not overlook the earlier action, either. Nick Lodolo is a solid fade candidate in his return from injury, while Bryce Harper has an enticing price to score a run.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 27.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Miller under 4.5 Ks (+125)
Miller has had a rough go of it over his past four starts. Coincidentally, that stretch began against tonight's opponent, the Houston Astros.
On May 5, Miller served up four runs on six hits over 6.0 innings, striking out just three batters in the outing.
He's now in a slump of allowing 16 runs over his past 23.1 innings, and he only has 17 strikeouts in that span.
I think an abbreviated start tonight is possible, and that would help in the probability of cashing this under. But even if Miller goes six-ish innings, he's unlikely to mow down Astros hitters with strikeouts.
Houston has the lowest K rate in baseball (17.2%). Eight of the past 10 starters who faced the Astros hit the under on this strikeout total.
Miller's Baseball Savant metrics don't suggest that he'll fare any better. His chase rate (25.3%) ranks in the 23rd percentile and his whiff rate (25.1%) ranks in the 49th percentile.
The young righty garners most of his whiffs off diving splitters and mid-90s four-seamers. Against those two pitches, the Astros have the lowest whiff rate in the majors (17.2%).
Based on Miller's arsenal, his recent form and his results against Houston, this under appears to have plenty of value at its price.
Key stat: Miller has gone under 4.5 Ks in three of his past four starts overall, as well as each of his past three against the Astros.
Quick picks
Harper over 0.5 runs (+108): Harper has struggled against Blake Snell in the past, but we haven't seen Snell flash any Cy Young-calibre stuff so far this year.
Snell, who won his second Cy Young award last season, has gotten rocked in all four of his outings in 2024. Opponents have posted a .908 OPS against him while scoring 19 runs in just 15.0 innings.
Harper is just 2-for-9 against Snell, but one of those hits left the yard. I'm not looking to make a habit out of betting on hitters who are at a platoon disadvantage, but Harper has been so good that I'm willing to look past it.
The two-time MVP has 19 runs and a 1.078 OPS in his past 21 games, and he's cashed this prop 14 times in that span.
Lodolo under 5.5 Ks (-120): Lodolo returns tonight after missing two-plus weeks with a groin strain. He didn't go on a rehab assignment, which makes me a bit skeptical about what his workload will be.
The Cardinals are finding their collective stride at the plate right now, posting a .732 OPS (114 wRC+) over their past 20 games.
Also, St. Louis has the seventh-lowest K rate against lefties this season (19.4%), per FanGraphs.
Lodolo has hit this over in five of six starts, but he landed on exactly six strikeouts in three of those outings. Coming off the injured list, I think this is a prime spot for another under.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 05/27/2024.