There's a lot of day baseball on Wednesday but I have three props for today's later games.
The pregame narrative: The top pick is a fade on Baltimore Orioles starter Kyle Bradish, while bets on Jordan Montgomery and Isaac Paredes make up the other selections.
Check out the top MLB prop bets for May 8.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Bradish under 17.5 outs (-109)
Bradish has a solid matchup but this line still feels like a lot to ask for in his second start of the season.
The Orioles right-hander, who faces the Washington Nationals tonight, missed the start of the year with a UCL sprain.
Bradish made three rehab outings — topping out at five innings — before throwing 4.2 frames in his season debut a week ago. Completing six innings would be a fairly big jump.
On top of that, Baltimore has a rested bullpen and an off day tomorrow.
Orioles starters have gone six-plus innings in four consecutive games since Bradish's May 2 start versus the New York Yankees.
Baltimore relievers have thrown the fourth-fewest innings in the majors and are top 10 in FIP. There should be no concern with letting the group work more than usual today.
Washington hasn't been a rollover, either. Versus right-handers, the Nats are a league-average offence by wRC+, with a top-10 walk rate and below-average K rate.
Key stat: The Nationals have won seven of their past 10 games.
Quick picks
Montgomery over 4.5 Ks (-103): The Arizona Diamondbacks lefty is coming off a forgettable start, getting shelled for six runs on six hits in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Montgomery was stellar in his two outings before that, though. And while he didn't top this number in either of them, he did go six-plus frames in each and is an innings eater.
Getting typical length from him today — he has gone six-plus innings in 23 of his last 33 starts — should help us get to this number.
Montgomery isn't a huge strikeout artist but he's essentially been league average over the last two seasons and was better in the two years before that.
The ballpark won't do him many favours today but the lineup will. The Cincinnati Reds sport an 80 wRC+ versus lefties — the seventh-worst mark in MLB — and are 11th in K% when facing southpaws.
Against all pitchers, the Reds have the third-highest K rate in baseball.
Paredes over 1.5 bases (+128): Paredes did damage against the Chicago White Sox last night and I expect him to do the same again today.
The Tampa Bay Rays third baseman went 3-for-4 with a bomb and, after seeing soft pitching yesterday, gets Chris Flexen tonight.
Flexen (4.85 ERA) is generally a punching bag. He gives up plenty of hits and doesn't possess swing-and-miss stuff, meaning balls are routinely put in play when facing him.
The veteran has a 5.40 FIP and had a mark of 6.22 last year. He has the highest home run/nine-inning rate since last year (minimum 120 innings pitched).
Paredes is batting .305/.385/.579 with eight bombs versus right-handers. He's slugging more than 200 points better against righties compared to lefties.
He has cleared this line in six of his last eight games. This is a great price to back him.
Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 05/08/2024.