The Toronto Blue Jays host the Kansas City Royals a week after visiting them.

The pregame narrative: Toronto didn't fare so well against Kansas City last week. It won the opener and then lost the following three contests. I'm not picking a side but rather the under on the game total, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s run prop and Yariel Rodriguez's strikeout line.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for April 29.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best Bet: Under 9 runs (-120)

None of the four contests between these teams last week featured more than eight runs.

Toronto and Kansas City averaged 5.25 runs per outing during their four-game series.

Rodriguez, who gets the ball for the Blue Jays today, pitched to moderate success in a 3-2 loss. He allowed six hits and two runs across four innings against the Royals.

Kansas City turns to Jonathan Bowlan, who's making a spot start in place of Alec Marsh. Bowlan has been solid as a starter for Triple-A Omaha, posting a 2.57 ERA across 21.0 innings in four starts.

The righty has only appeared in two MLB outings in his career, so a lack of familiarity could play into Bowlan's favour.

Neither team boasts a prolific offence, either. Toronto ranks 23rd in OPS and Kansas City sits 19th (.683).

Key stat: Both teams are cashing unders at a top-five rate in MLB.

Quick picks

Guerrero Jr. under 0.5 runs (-114): The first step to scoring a run is getting on base.

Unfortunately, Guerrero isn't doing a whole lot of that this season. He's batting a minuscule .218 with a .323 on-base percentage.

Consequently, he's not crossing home plate with any sort of frequency. He has 10 runs in 29 games and has failed to score in six of his last seven contests.

He's slashing a brutal .174/.208/.217 during this six-game run, and I'll continue fading him until he proves he's snapping out of it.

Rodriguez under 3.5 Ks (+163): This is a low line but it's one I'm comfortable backing at these odds.

Rodriguez doesn't work deep into ball games. The Blue Jays starter hasn't hurled more than four innings in any of his three appearances.

He has flashed some swing-and-miss skills with six and seven punchouts, respectively, in his first two starts. But the rookie didn't have as much success in last week's matchup against Kansas City.

Rodriguez totalled two strikeouts against the patient Royals. He only generated four swinging strikes in the outing, which isn't a surprise.

Kansas City is averaging the second-fewest strikeouts per game (6.76).

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 04/29/24.