The Toronto Maple Leafs evened up their series against the Boston Bruins and the two teams head to Scotiabank Arena for Game 3.

The pregame narrative: Toronto played a complete game and earned the win in Game 2. It's Boston's turn to make adjustments now and I expect the team to up the intensity Wednesday night. A low-scoring game should favour the Bruins, putting the under and the visitor's moneyline in play.

Check out the best Maple Leafs picks and odds vs. the Bruins for April 24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins

Best Bet: Under 6 goals (-115)

The under on this total has been a strong trend all year long.

It has cashed or pushed in five of six meetings between Boston and Toronto, including both games this series.

The unpredictable Ilya Samsonov was solid his last time out. He turned aside 27 of the 29 shots he faced in a 3-2 win and didn't face too many Grade A chances thanks to a solid defensive effort in front of him.

The Maple Leafs had more than twice as many scoring chances (37-17) and double the high-danger chances (14-7) as Toronto in Game 2, per Natural Stat Trick.

The pressure is on Boston to adjust now and it's pretty safe to assume that the club will continue to receive excellent goaltending.

Boston's affinity for alternating Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark likely means the former goes in Game 3.

Swayman has had Toronto's number all season, allowing five goals in four outings against the Maple Leafs.

Boston's five-goal outburst in Game 1 seems more like an anomaly than a regular occurrence. More white-knuckle hockey awaits.

Key stat: The under on this total has hit or pushed in 10 of the Bruins' last 11 games.

Quick pick

Bruins moneyline (+100): Boston is a solid choice at these odds.

The Bruins served as favourites for both games at home and now come at even money.

Samsonov's Game 2 effort was excellent but I'm having a difficult time banking on a repeat performance.

He's allowed three-plus goals in seven of his last 11 contests and hasn't done enough to show that his struggles are in the past.

Let's not forget the exodus of Samsonov supporters after his Game 1 stinker. A poor effort could elicit the same response and have head coach Sheldon Keefe considering Joseph Woll.

Boston also lost defenceman Andrew Peeke midway through Game 2. Peeke isn't an impact defender but his absence left the Bruins with five defencemen and it appeared the defensive core struggled to gel while down a man.

This veteran group should respond and be the more desperate team as it looks to reclaim home-ice advantage.

Picks made at 3:17 p.m. on 04/23/24.