Champions League semi-finals best bets: Bet on Bayern Munich against Real Madrid
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Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are tied, 2-2, on aggregate. Photo by Matthias Schrader/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
May 6, 2024

The second leg of the Champions League semi-finals take place this week.

The pregame narrative: Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are tied, 2-2, on aggregate. I'm expecting the Bavarians to put up a solid performance on the road. But before that, I'm backing Donyell Malen to record a shot on target against Real Madrid.

Check out these Champions League best bets for the semi-final matchups on May 7 and 8.

Champions League best bets

Best bet: Bayern Munich to win or tie in regulation (-112)

Bayern Munich failed to win the Bundesliga for the first time in 11 years but an even bigger trophy is in its sights.

Getting past Real Madrid on the road won't be easy. The Bavarians are +165 to advance and +295 to win this game in regulation. I think they can do it but am more content backing the team to be at least tied through 90 minutes and added time.

Bayern has cashed this bet in six of its last seven starts across all competitions. That includes three Champions League games (two against Arsenal, one against Real Madrid).

Thomas Tuchel's side did lose on the weekend in the Bundesliga, but that was a meaningless game with Bayern already qualified for the Champions League next year.

Holding Real Madrid's offence at bay will be the tough test here.

The team has world-class talent up and down the pitch and hasn't lost a game since the Copa Del Rey Round of 16 on Jan. 18 — and it hasn't been shut out since Nov. 5.

That might sound intimidating but Madrid has drawn five of its last 12 games including four straight UCL appearances.

Key stat: Bayern Munich has cashed this bet in 10 of 11 Champions League games this year.

Quick picks

Malen over 0.5 shots on target (-120): Malen missed the first leg of the semifinal, a 1-0 win for Dortmund, due to injury but he should factor into Tuesday's match.

The Dutch forward returned from a three-week absence for Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday and logged six shot attempts, three shots on target, and a goal in 62 minutes of playing time.

That's pretty impressive.

Malen leads all Dortmund players in shots on target (35) and shots on target per 90 (1.79) in league play, according to FBRef. He has a shot on target in seven of his eight games for Dortmund across all competitions, with 16 total SOT in that span.

The 25-year-old has a SOT in five of his seven Champions League appearances this year.

Picks made at 2:46 p.m. ET 05/06/2024.

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