Tonight's only MLB game pits the Cleveland Guardians against the underperforming Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Houston (10-20) hasn't been able to string together many wins this season, but the offence is still humming. As for Cleveland (20-10), its division-leading start is fuelled by a stellar batting lineup. I like the over for tonight's matchup, as well as prop bets on Kyle Tucker and Steven Kwan.

Check out my Guardians vs. Astros picks for the May 2 game in Houston.

Guardians vs. Astros picks

Best bet: Kwan over 0.5 runs (-105)

In a very literal sense, Kwan has powered up in a major way this season.

It's Year 3 for Cleveland's leadoff man and so far he's the AL batting leader (.360) through 29 games. But the eye-popping component of Kwan's profile is his uptick in power.

Here's how things are going so far for Kwan this year compared to 2022-23:

• 2022-23 seasons: .102 ISO, .384 SLG, 1.2% barrel rate, 85.5 mph average exit velocity
• This season: .152 ISO, .512 SLG, 3.5% barrel rate, 84.3 mph average exit velocity

A 3.5% barrel rate isn't much overall, but it's almost thrice the rate Kwan was previously at.

With all of that said, I like the over on Kwan's 1.5 bases prop (+110) tonight. But his runs prop looks like an even steadier play, and it's still at a near-even price.

Kwan's improved power has helped him get into scoring position more often. And that has led him to score in 47% of his times on base (MLB average is 30%).

Tonight, Houston sends Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 10.97 ERA) to the mound. Arrighetti has allowed the leadoff man to score in all three of his starts, and he's allowed 13 runs over just 10.2 innings.

As a lefty hitter, Kwan has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Arrighetti. Kwan's career OPS against RHPs (.783) is 99 points better than his career OPS against LHPs.

Key stat: Kwan leads the majors in runs (27) and he has scored in 18 of 29 games (62.1%).

Quick picks

Over 9 runs (-107): Cleveland starter Logan Allen has a 5.46 ERA, and Arrighetti's ERA is twice that size. So that's a good starting point for an over.

But the offensive firepower on both sides is what's at the centre of this pick.

Cleveland is fifth in the majors in runs per game (5.2), while Houston averages a respectable 4.5 runs. And both teams rank in the top 10 for team OPS.

The first two games of this series went to extras, which means both pitching staffs should be taxed. Good luck to Allen and Arrighetti, but I think this one could get ugly for them.

Tucker over 1.5 bases (+110): If my high-scoring prediction comes through, Tucker should absolutely play a role.

Over his past 16 games, Tucker has cashed this prop 11 times while posting a 1.261 OPS. He also has three homers in his past four games.

Tucker bats from the left side, so you'd think a lefty-lefty matchup would be an issue for him. But the star outfielder has an .864 OPS in his career against LHPs (versus an .856 OPS against RHPs).

Picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET 05/02/2024.