Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP picks Game 2: Take Dallas on alt spread, fade Edwards and Gobert at +380
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Fade Minnesota in Game 2. Photo by Abbie Parr/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
May 24, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks have a chance to return home with a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference finals.

The pregame narrative: Dallas didn't play its best game but still eked out a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1. I'm teasing the road team up to a double-digit underdog and am fading Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Backing Kyrie Irving as a passer rounds out this +380 ticket.

Check out the full Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP picks for Game 2 on Friday, May 24.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves SGP picks

Parlay: Mavericks +10.5 + Edwards over 29.5 points + Gobert under 12.5 rebounds + Irving over 3.5 assists (+380)

Mavericks +10.5 (-250): If you told me Dallas' calling card would be its defence at the beginning of the season I wouldn't have believed you, but here we are.

The Mavericks have been relentless on that end of the floor this postseason. They rank sixth in defensive rating (110.6), fifth in points allowed per game (103.3), and second in opponent field goal percentage (43.9%).

That's helped them keep nearly every game close. Dallas is 9-4 this postseason and is 11-2 ATS against this number.

Minnesota has been a great home team all year but Jason Kidd's team has thrived on the road. The Mavs are a league-best 32-16 ATS as an underdog, per Team Rankings.

Other parlay picks

Edwards under 29.5 points (-195): Edwards ran out of gas toward the end of Game 1 but he's truthfully been underperforming for some time.

Minnesota's guard put up 19 points on 6-of-16 shooting on Wednesday and has now scored fewer than 20 in four of his last six games.

Edwards has also failed to clear this mark in six of his last seven.

He's shooting 34.7% from the field since his 44-point outburst in Game 4 against the Denver Nuggets and I can't see a reversal of fortune against Dallas' stingy defence.

Edwards is taking 34.0% of his shots at the rim this postseason which ranks in the 100th percentile of all playoff players, per Cleaning the Glass.

Dallas is holding opponents to the third-lowest shooting percentage from that area of the court (57.2%).

Gobert under 12.5 rebounds (-148): This line feels out of reach.

Gobert averaged the second most rebounds per game (12.9) during the regular season but he's fallen off during the playoffs (10.5).

The T-Wolves' centre only had seven boards in Game 1 despite playing 38 minutes. He's gone under this total in three of his last four playoff games and four of five versus the Mavericks on the season.

Dallas is sixth in rebounding rate this postseason (51.8%) and has held 12 straight starting centres under this line in the playoffs, per Alex Caruso on X.

Irving over 3.5 assists (-250): Irving showed off his scoring prowess in Game 1 but I can see him embracing a facilitator role tonight.

Luka Doncic finally looks healthy and is averaging 31.0 points across his last three outings on 52.4% shooting. He'll be the offence's top dog.

Irving has cleared this mark in five of his last six games — including Game 1 — while averaging 6.3 assists. He has gone over this mark in 10 of 13 playoff games.

Picks as of 11:32 a.m. on 05/24/2024.

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