Tonight's MLB prop bets feature Cole Ragans, J.D. Martinez and Joe Ryan.
The pregame narrative: Ragans has a golden opportunity against a pitiful Oakland A's lineup, and I'm backing his strikeouts prop as my best bet. Elsewhere, I like Joe Ryan to work deep into his start and J.D. Martinez to capitalize on his platoon advantage.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Wednesday, June 19.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Ragans over 7.5 Ks (-130)
Ragans carved up the A's last month, tossing seven innings of two-hit ball while striking out seven. Though he fell just short of this line, I like his chances to hit the over against the A's tonight.
When he pitched in Oakland last year, Ragans fanned 11 batters over 6.0 innings. His dominance against the A's active lineup is staggering:
- 2-for-35 (.057)
- 16 Ks
- 37.6% whiff rate
For context, the average MLB whiff rate is 25.1%. It's a small sample, but it still speaks volumes.
Ragans has the enviable profile of a left-handed pitcher who throws gas. His fastball, which averages 96.1 mph and has elite horizontal run, sets up a changeup that garners a 44.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Oakland has the sixth-highest whiff rate against 95-plus-mph fastballs, and the highest whiff rate against changeups, per Baseball Savant.
Even putting those specific data points aside, the A's are a perfect matchup to target for a strikeout prop. They take as many empty hacks as any team in MLB.
Oakland has the lowest zone contact rate, the lowest chase contact rate and the second-highest K rate in the majors.
Key stat: In their past 30 games, the A's have averaged 10.2 strikeouts per game.
Quick picks
Martinez over 1.5 bases (+108): The good times are rolling for the New York Mets, and Martinez has done his part during the seven-game win streak.
In that span, the designated hitter is 10-for-26 (.385) with six extra-base hits. And he's cashed this bases prop five times.
Targeting Martinez against a lefty is good business. He has a .340/.446/.574 slash line against southpaws this season.
Furthermore, Martinez has great numbers in this matchup. He's 4-for-11 with two homers against Texas Rangers starter Andrew Heaney.
Ryan over 18.5 outs (+130): It's always a sizeable ask backing a pitcher to complete more than six innings, but Ryan is cut out for the job.
Ryan has cashed this bet in five of his past seven starts, posting a 2.98 ERA in that span.
His 4.2% walk rate, which ranks in the 93rd percentile, means he doesn't jack up his pitch count issuing free passes. And his eight-start streak of exceeding the 90-pitch mark means he's trusted to go deep.
Ryan is catching the Tampa Bay Rays at a good time, as the Rays are collectively batting just .203 in their past 10 games. And Ryan has held Tampa's active lineup to a 7-for-34 (.206) stat line in previous matchups.
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 06/19/2024.