Italy and Spain meet in a heavyweight Group of Death clash.
The pregame narrative: Both teams enter Thursday's match following a win. Spain had a huge 3-0 win over Croatia while Italy battled back from an early deficit to beat Albania 2-1. La Roja look dangerous but I'm backing the Azzurri to at least force a draw.
Check out this Italy vs. Spain best bet for the Group B match on June 20.
Italy vs. Spain best bet and odds
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| Best bet | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Italy or tie | -134 | Add to betslip |
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Italy vs. Spain prediction
Best Bet: Italy or tie (-134)
Spain is a good team but I don't think it's worthy of these odds.
La Roja's 3-0 win over Croatia looks great on paper but that contest was much closer than the score indicates. Spain generated 2.01 xG to Croatia's 2.38, per TheAnalyst.com.
Expected goals don't win games, and Bruno Petkovic's missed penalty (+0.788 xG) inflates those numbers, but Croatia did have 53.6% of the possession. That snapped a 136-game streak for the Spainairds dating back to the 2008 European Championship final.
At the end of the day, Spain was clinical and Croatia wasn't.
Italy will have its hands full against the Spanish attack but I think it can hold the group back.
The Azzurri gave Albania a gift of a goal seconds into the game on an errant throw-in from Federico Dimarco but responded with two goals of their own and battered down the hatches after that.
Albania had zero shots on target after the first minute and generated only 0.51 expected goals during the game. Italy also held a dominant 68.0% possession.
Spain has secured a pair of 2-1 victories against Italy since the Azzurri bounced it in the Euro 2020 semi-final. But Italy was sent down to ten men in the first outing and Federico Chiesa missed the second game with a torn ACL.
The Spanish are dealing with a key injury of their own this tournament with star midfielder Gavi sidelined. I think Italy's midfield can hold possession close and at least play this to a draw.
Key stat: Italy has cashed this bet in seven straight games.
Pick made at 9:56 a.m. on 06/19/24.