NBA playoff prop bets April 26: Back Siakam, Durant to fill the basket
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Check out tonight's NBA prop bets. Photos by AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
April 26, 2024

I'm targeting one prop bet from each of Friday's NBA playoff games.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam has been unstoppable this series and I expect his scoring binge to continue tonight. Bets on Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard round out these plays.

Check out these NBA prop bets for April 25.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Siakam over 27.5 points (-114)

Toronto Raptors fans might be a bit miffed with how well Siakam is performing.

The two-time NBA all-star put up 36 and 37 points through the first two games on 64.6% shooting. Toronto did get a handful of role players and picks when trading away Siakam earlier this year, but that type of production is hard to replace.

Siakam's shooting might come back down to earth but he's also due to make more free throws.

He is 7-of-13 at the line, well below his 73.2% season-long average. Regression works both ways and Siakam's volume (24.0 shots/game) is encouraging.

I also believe the Indiana Pacers' offence has more to give.

Indiana played with the second-fastest pace (102.16 possessions/game) this season but has only averaged 94.75 possessions/game in the playoffs, per NBA.com.

The Pacers had the second-best home overs rate (61.0%) this season. Turning this into a shootout is their best chance at securing a win.

Key stat: Siakam is averaging the second-most PPG in the playoffs.

Quick picks

Leonard over 5.5 rebounds (-127): New Balance said it best: "Board man gets paid."

Leonard is a do-it-all player that makes an impact even on a tough shooting night. He only scored 15 points in Game 2 but added seven rebounds and had a great defensive performance.

I expect him to be active on the glass again tonight.

Leonard has gone over this mark in five of his last seven games dating back to the regular season, landing on five rebounds in one of the outliers. He's also cleared this mark in three straight versus the Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavs aren't a good rebounding team. They were 26th in rebound rate during the regular season and allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game to small forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Durant over 25.5 points (-125): The Phoenix Suns will need their top players to show out tonight.

Durant scored 31 points in Game 1 but followed it up with 18 on Tuesday. He only took 15 shots in Game 2, which is considerably lower than his 19.1 season-long average.

Nothing comes easy against the Minnseota Timberwolves' defence but they've been getting cooked in the mid-range this series.

Minny is allowing opponents to shoot 47.1% from that area of the floor, which is the fourth-worst mark of all playoff and play-in teams, per Cleaning the Glass.

That's Durant's office. He took 56% of his shots from that area of the court this season, which ranks in the 98th percentile league-wide.

KD averaged 28.0 PPG at home this season and I expect him to take over tonight.

Picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 04/26/2024.

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